1. What’s Gone Down Will Eventually Come Back Up
2017 Crop Markets:
What’s Gone Down Will Eventually Come Back Up
Integrated Crop Management Conference
Ames, IA
Nov. 30, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
175.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
15,226
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,738
Imports
160 36 32 67 50
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,400
17,013
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,280
5,130
5,650
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,200
5,206
5,300
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,401
1,429
1,435
Exports
730
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,662
14,610
Ending Stocks
2,403
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.30
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,361
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
197
Imports 41 72 33 24 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,588
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,930
Seed & Residual
105
107
146
121
127
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,050
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,943
4,108
Ending Stocks
480
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

16. Corn Grind for Ethanol

17. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

18. Current Corn Futures
3.59
3.21
Source: CME Group, 11/29/2016

19. Current Soybean Futures
9.75
9.75
Source: CME Group, 11/29/2016

20. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

21. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

22. 2017/18 Crop Margins

23. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

24. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

25. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: