1. 2015 Crop Market Outlook Iowa State Bank Meeting Hull, Iowa
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
89.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
166.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,595
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,777
Imports 29
160 36 25
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,472
15,397
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,036
5,300
5,275
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,225
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,367
1,395
1,410
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,800
1,850
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,695
13,760
Ending Stocks
1,637
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.50
Sources: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2015 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
83.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,800
Beg. Stocks
215
169
141 92
385
Imports 16 41 72 25 20
Total Supply
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,086
4,205
Crush
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,795
1,840
Seed & Residual 88
105 97
116
Exports
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,790
1,820
Total Use
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,701
3,775
Ending Stocks
430
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.20
9.00
Sources: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2015 3 3

4. Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

16. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

18. Current Corn Futures
3.79
3.66
Source: CME Group, 3/17/2015

19. Current Soybean Futures
9.94
9.05
Source: CME Group, 3/17/2015

20. 2014/15 Crop Margins

21. 2015/16 Crop Margins

22. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Record corn and soybean crops, but also record demand
Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for news
Watching South American crop progress and U.S. acreage
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(3/17/15)
Corn
$3.70
$3.50
$3.66
$3.79
Soybeans
$10.20
$9.00
$9.94
$9.05

23. Corn Insurance Prices

24. Soybean Insurance Prices

25. PLC pays, ARC does not Neither pay Both pay ARC pays, PLC does not
The choice depends on where you expect prices and yields to be over the next 5 years. There are price/yield combinations where PLC pays and ARC does not. There are also price/yield combinations where ARC pays and PLC does not.

26. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: