1. November 18
2014 U.S. Grain Outlook Chris Hurt Purdue Extension Service August 2013,
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

2. $8.50 $8 $7.50 $4 $2 to $3 ’10 = 153 bu./ac ‘11 = 147 bu./ac
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

3. Moderation to What. Base Today: $5. 00 corn $12. 00 beans 2
Moderation to What? Base Today: $5.00 corn $12.00 beans 2.0% 10-Year Treasury

4. 1.1M acre/year 5.8M acre/year 1.5M acre/year
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

5. 243 Million acres added in 9 years

7. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

8. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

9. Corn: USDA 8/12/13 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels
Corn: USDA
8/12/13
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
Million Bushels
Carry in
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
719
Production
13,110
12,447
12,358
10,780
13,763
Total Supply
14,791
14,182
13,514
11,934
14,512
Feed & Residual
5,166
4,792
4,547
4,450
5,100
FSI Non-Fuel
1,370
1,406
1,426
1,400
1,450
FSI Fuel (Ethanol)
4,560
5,021
5,011
4,650
4,900
Export
1,987
1,835
1,541
715
1,225
Total Use
13,083
13,054
12,525
11,215
12,675
Ending Stocks
1,837
US Farm Price
$3.55
$5.18
$6.22
$6.95
$4.90
$6.75-$7.15
$ $5.30
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

10. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

11. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

12. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

13. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

14. $4.46
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

15. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

16. August 23 to 29 Precip Moisture Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

17. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

18. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

19. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

20. Soybeans: USDA 8/12/13 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels
Soybeans: USDA
8/12/13
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
Million Bushels
Carry in
138
151
215
169
125
Production
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,255
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,219
3,395
Seed & Residual
108
132 88 94
115
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,685
1,675
Exports
1,501
1,500
1,365
1,315
1,385
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,156
3,175
Ending Stock
220
Farm Price
$9.59
$11.30
$12.50
$14.40
$11.35
$10.35-$12.35
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

21. $11.62
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

22. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

23. Wheat: USDA 8/12/13 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels
Wheat: USDA
8/12/13
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
Million Bushels
Carry in
657
976
862
743
718
Production
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,269
2,114
Total Supply
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,135
2,962
Feed & Residual
148
133
164
388
280
Other Domestic
988
995
1,017
1,020
1,031
Exports
881
1,289
1,050
1,009
1,100
Total Use
2,017
2,417
2,231
2,411
End Stocks
551
Farm Price
$4.87
$5.70
$7.24
$7.80
$7.00
$6.40-$7.60
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

24. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

25. Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

26. Tea Leaves 2013-2016 Moderation-with a Downward Slope??
Next 4 Years:
Time to be cautious for some and aggressive for others?
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University

27. Weaker tone for Crop Producers Who’s Vulnerable?
-High % of Hi cash rent
-Weak financial position
-High costs for whatever reason
-Recent large land purchases?
Strategies:
-Turn more cautious
-Focus on driving costs down
-Delay pricing inputs
-No multiple year locking in inputs
-Forward price product more
aggressively
-Earn storage returns
Weaker tone for Input Suppliers
-Lower fertilizer prices/volume
-Lower seed prices & more competition
-Lower cash rents
-Lower machinery demand
-Lenders: Declining loan volumes in $
-Reduce inventories
-Caution about ordering
-No new capital investments
-Collect accounts payable
Improved tone: Margins and Volume
-Grain Handlers
-Grain & Soybean Processors
-Animal product producers & suppliers
-Food consumers: Slower food price inflation
-Foreign buyers
-Rejoice!
-Improve financial position
-Become more aggressive
-Consider expansion
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University