1. Crop and Livestock Market Outlook
4th Annual FCS Elite Crop Meeting
Sioux City, Iowa
Dec. 9, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.1
158.8
173.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,755
13,925
14,407
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,236
Imports 28 29
160 36 25
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,904
14,782
15,668
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,315
5,132
5,375
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,125
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,397
1,363
1,385
Exports
1,834
1,543
730
1,917
1,750
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,083
13,546
13,660
Ending Stocks
2,008
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.8
84.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,958
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141 92
Imports 14 16 41 72 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,065
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,780
Seed & Residual
130 88
105 98
115
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,720
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,615
Ending Stocks
450
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2014 Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Current Corn Futures
4.04
3.73
Source: CME Group, 12/5/2014

17. Current Soybean Futures
10.14
9.82
Source: CME Group, 12/5/2014

18. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

19. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

20. 2014/15 Crop Margins

21. 2015/16 Crop Margins

22. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Record corn and soybean crops, but also record demand
Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for news
Watching South American crop progress
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Futures
(12/5/14)
2015/16
Corn
$4.46
$3.50
$3.73
$4.04
Soybeans
$13.00
$10.00
$10.14
$9.82

23. Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC:12/4/2014)
Change
Average
Commercial
from
Dressed
Beef
Year
Slaughter
Year Ago
Weight
Production
Quarter
(1,000 hd)
(%)
(lbs)
(mil lbs)
2013 I
7,781
-3.1
794
1.4
6,175
-1.7 II
8,325
0.2
782
0.4
6,513
0.6
III
8,321
-0.1
0.5
6,609 IV
8,035
-3.0
799
0.7
6,423
-2.3
32,462
-1.5
792
25,720
-0.7
2014
7,375
-5.2
796
0.3
5,868
-5.0
7,836
-5.9
789
0.9
6,183
-5.1
7,630
-8.3
810
1.9
6,178
-6.5
7,508
-6.6
820
2.6
6,157
-4.1
30,349
804
24,386
2015
7,135
-3.3
816
2.5
5,819
-0.8
7,602
803
1.7
6,103
-1.3
7,447
-2.4
818
1.0
6,088
7,407
823
6,097
-1.0
29,591
-2.5
815
24,107
-1.1
2016
7,145
0.1
821
5,865
0.8
7,325
-3.6
808
5,920
7,579
1.8
825
6,252
2.7
7,316
-1.2
828
6,059
-0.6
29,365
24,096
-0.05

24. 878 lbs/cow in 2013
(+1.27%/yr)
579 lbs/cow in 1980
Source: USDA/NASS

25. Pending Expansion? –How Fast?, How Large?, How Long?…
???
National Herd:
-0.9% (vs. 2013)
Smallest since 1962
Pending Expansion? –How Fast?, How Large?, How Long?…
Data Source: USDA/NASS

26. 2014-YTD Beef Cow Slaughter
-17.7% (vs. 2013)
-26.5% (vs )
Beef Cow Culling Rates
2005 = 7.9%
= 9.4%
= 11.3%
2013 = 10.5%
2014-YTD = 7.9%
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

27. Data Source: USDA/AMS

28. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

29. Data Source: USDA/AMS

30. Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

31. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

32. 2013 Profits = -$100.77 ~2014 Profits = +$197.26
Oct-03 Profit = $378
Total Cost: = $920
ROI = 41%
Jul-14 Profit = $265
Total Cost: = $1,784
ROI = 14%

33. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Sep 2014
Sep-14/Aug-14
Sep-14/Sep-13
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Mexico
23.6%
19.6%
52,523
18.6%
Japan
-7.4%
30.2%
-16,031
-3.0%
Canada
-18.1%
-30.1%
-82,815
-22.8%
South Korea
-14.7%
0.6%
38,523
21.5%
Hong Kong
7.2%
-1.5%
57,458
24.8%
China (Taiwan)
-19.8%
5,309
7.3%
Vietnam
-25.4%
63.6%
-3,983
-41.4%
Russia
-96
-78.7%
Egypt
-74.3%
-97.2%
-43,340
-93.6%
Netherlands
20.4%
14.9%
335
1.2%
Philippines
9.3%
14.2%
4,402
25.6%
Other Countries
-21.1%
-9.2%
6,644
4.3%
Total
-4.3%
3.8%
18,928
1.0%
WASDE U.S.
Beef Exports (mil lbs)
2013: 2,590
2014: 2,599 (+0.3%)
2015: 2,525 (-2.8%)
Source: USDA/ERS

34. Quarterly Hog & Pork Forecasts (LMIC:12/4/2014)
Change
Average
Commercial
from
Carcass
Pork
Year
Slaughter
Year Ago
Weight
Production
Quarter
(1,000 hd)
(%)
(lbs)
(mil lbs)
2013 I
27,864
-0.9
208
-0.5
5,775
-1.4 II
26,765
0.4
206
5,516
-0.1
III
27,657
-1.1
204
1.2
5,622
-0.2 IV
29,792
-2.1
211
2.6
6,274
0.5
112,077
-1.0
207
0.7
23,187
-0.3
2014
27,134
-2.6
213
2.7
5,785
0.2
25,574
-4.4
215
4.4
5,504
25,554
-7.6
212
4.2
5,423
-3.5
28,922
-2.9
214
1.4
6,189
107,184
3.2
22,902
-1.2
2015
26,951
-0.7
0.9
5,799
26,341
3.0
-0.4
5,649
26,325
0.0
5,588
29,894
3.4
6,426
3.8
109,511
2.2
23,462
2.4
2016
28,263
4.9
216
6,096
5.1
27,037
5,810
2.9
27,049
2.8
0.3
5,758
30,462
1.9
6,558
2.1
112,811
24,222

37. USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
September 26, 2014
2014 as %
Pre-Report
Actual -
2013
2014
of 2013
Range
Estimate
Inventories on Sep 1 *
All hogs and pigs
66,906
65,361
97.7
96.6
1.1
Kept for breeding
5,816
5,920
101.8
101.4
0.4
Market
61,090
59,441
97.3
96.2
Under 50 pounds
19,824
19,517
98.5
97.8
0.7
pounds
17,958
17,658
98.3
96.4
1.9
pounds
12,584
12,147
96.5
94.9
1.6
180 pounds and over
10,725
10,118
94.3
93.6
Farrowing **
Mar – May sows farrowed
2,806
2,797
99.7
Jun – Aug sows farrowed
2,890
2,907
100.6
100.4
0.2
Sep – Nov intentions
2,780
104.0
103.2
0.8
Dec – Feb intentions
2,765
2,870
103.8
101.7
2.1
Pig Crop *
Mar – May
28,921
27,361
94.6
Jun – Aug pig
29,862
29,539
98.9
97.6
1.3
Pigs Saved per Litter
Mar - May
10.31
9.78
Jun - Aug
10.33
10.16
98.4
97.2
1.2
* 1,000 head
** 1,000 litters
Data Source: USDA/NASS

38. 50-119
<50
** The approximate times when hog inventory reported in September comes to market
180+
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

39. Data Source: USDA/AMS

40. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

41. 2013 Profits = +$4.77
~2014 Profits = +$39.39
~2015 Profits = +$13.45

42. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Sep 2014
Sep-14/Aug-14
Sep-14/Sep-13
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Japan
-4.3%
-21.1%
-42,448
-4.2%
Mexico
2.7%
15.7%
149,153
17.2%
Canada
13.5%
3.2%
-25,664
-5.9%
China (Mainland)
38.1%
-83.4%
-90,934
-24.1%
South Korea
36.1%
178.2%
73,014
36.6%
Russia
85,443
497.1%
Hong Kong
-25.1%
-10.3%
-24,011
-21.8%
Australia
-20.8%
-28.3%
5,833
4.8%
China (Taiwan)
-36.3%
-10,600
-32.8%
Philippines
29.9%
-14.7%
-6,734
-7.6%
Honduras
-16.3%
-19.9%
-9,840
Colombia
-21.6%
9.6%
38,511
60.3%
Other Countries
6.1%
-34.5%
-75,373
-25.8%
Total
-2.4%
-13.2%
66,350
1.8%
WASDE U.S.
Pork Exports (mil lbs)
2013: 4,992
2014: 5,066 (+1.5%)
2015: 5,250 (+3.6%)
Source: USDA/ERS

43. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: