1. 2011 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Apr. 13, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 2010 Area Planted (mil. acres)
93.5
86.0
86.4
88.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
150.7
153.9
164.7
152.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,038
12,092
13,092
12,447
Beg. Stocks
1,304
1,624
1,673
1,708
Imports 20 14 8
Total Supply
14,362
13,729
14,774
14,175
Feed & Residual
5,913
5,182
5,140
5,150
Ethanol
3,049
3,709
4,568
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,338
1,316
1,371
1,400
Exports
2,437
1,849
1,987
1,950
Total Use
12,737
12,056
13,066
13,500
Ending Stocks
675
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.20
4.06
3.55
5.40
Source: USDA 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
2010
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
64.7
75.7
77.5
77.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.7
39.7
44.0
43.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,677
2,967
3,359
3,329
Beg. Stocks
574
205
138
151
Imports 10 13 15
Total Supply
3,261
3,185
3,512
3,495
Crush
1,803
1,662
1,752
1,650
Seed & Residual 93
106
108
125
Exports
1,159
1,279
1,501
1,580
Total Use
3,056
3,047
3,361
3,355
Ending Stocks
140
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
9.97
9.59
11.50
Source: USDA 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 2010 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
60.5
63.2
59.2
53.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.2
44.9
44.5
46.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,051
2,499
2,218
2,208
Beg. Stocks
456
306
657
976
Imports
113
127
119
110
Total Supply
2,620
2,932
2,993
3,294
Food
948
927
917
930
Seed 88 78 69 80
Feed & Residual 16
255
150
170
Exports
1,263
1,015
881
1,275
Total Use
2,314
2,275
2,018
2,455
Ending Stocks
839
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.48
6.78
4.87
5.60
Source: USDA 4 4

5. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 5 5

6. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 6 6

7. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

10. Corn vs. Wheat (CME July 2011 futures)

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

12. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

13. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

14. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

15. Wheat Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

16. Wheat Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2009
4.11
2010
4.43
2011
4.64
2012
4.86 17 17

18. Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD

19. Ethanol Blending Advantage

20. Fuel Prices 20 20

21. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 21 21

22. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

23. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

24. Projected ‘10 Season-Average Wheat Price

25. Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS

26. 2011 Intentions (mil. acres)
Crop Shifts
Crop
2010 Plantings (mil. acres)
2011 Intentions (mil. acres)
% Change in Area
Corn
88.2
92.2
+4.5
Wheat
53.6
58.0
+8.2
Soybeans
77.4
76.6
-1.0
Cotton
11.0
12.6
+14.5
Rice
3.6
3.0
-17.0
Hay
59.9
59.0
-1.5
Source: USDA-NASS

27. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
92.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
161.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
13,537
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
675
Imports 14 8 20
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,175
14,232
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,140
5,150
5,120
Ethanol
3,709
4,568
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,371
1,400
1,440
Exports
1,849
1,987
1,950
2,000
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,500
13,560
Ending Stocks
672
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.40
?.?? 27 27

28. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
76.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
43.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,268
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
140
Imports 13 15
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,423
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,650
Seed & Residual
106
108
125
115
Exports
1,279
1,501
1,580
1,575
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,355
3,340
Ending Stocks 83
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.50
??.?? 28 28

29. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
58.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.4
43.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,208
2,170
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
839
Imports
127
119
110 81
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,294
3,090
Food
927
917
930
Seed 78 69 80
Feed & Residual
255
150
170
Exports
1,015
881
1,275
1,150
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,455
2,330
Ending Stocks
760
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.60
?.?? 29 29

30. Weather Concerns 30 30

31. Planting Forecast
Temperature
Precipitation
Source: NWS-CPC 31 31

32. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

33. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

34. Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

35. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Supply/demand concerns
Planting intentions vs. realizations
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11
USDA
2011/12
Futures (4/8/11)
Corn
$5.40
$6.39
Soybeans
$11.50
$13.48
Wheat
$5.60
$9.05

36. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: