1. Crop Market Outlook Pro Ag Meetings Waterloo and Fort Dodge, Iowa
Nov. 19, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
169.3
1.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,654 99
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
Imports
160 36 32 30
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,415
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,315
5,300 25
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,209
5,175
-75
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,380
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,800
-50
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,655
-100
Ending Stocks
1,760
199
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
-0.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
83.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.3
1.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,981 93
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,203 94
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,890 10
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
133 3
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,715 40
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,738 53
Ending Stocks
465
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.90
-0.25
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

14. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

18. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

19. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

20. Current Corn Futures
3.69
3.45
Source: CME Group, 11/18/2015

21. Current Soybean Futures
8.35
8.22
Source: CME Group, 11/18/2015

22. 2015/16 Crop Margins

23. 2016/17 Crop Margins

24. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

25. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

26. Thoughts for 2016 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Feed and ethanol markets have alternatives (sorghum, wheat)
Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows
Will El Niño last through our next crop cycle?
Negative margins for crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(11/18/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.65
$3.45
$3.69
Soybeans
$10.10
$8.90
$8.22
$8.35

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: