1. Crop Market Outlook North Central Iowa Research Farm Annual Meeting
Clarion, Iowa
Mar. 16, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,435
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,550
5,450
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,400
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,445
1,470
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,620
14,220
Ending Stocks
2,215
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
88.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,180
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
435
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,640
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,940
1,945
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
128
135
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,025
2,125
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,093
4,205
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.60
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

4. Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

7. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 7 7

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Trade
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

21. Current Corn Futures
3.98
3.86
3.49
Source: CME Group, 3/15/2017

22. Current Soybean Futures
9.80
9.59
9.61
Source: CME Group, 3/15/2017

23. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

24. 2017/18 Crop Margins

25. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

26. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: