1. Crop Market Outlook Iowa Farm Business Association Workshop
Altoona, Iowa
Sept. 16, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
15,093
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,716
Imports
160 36 32 65 50
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,397
16,859
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,200
5,650
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,275
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,367
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,915
2,175
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,682
14,475
Ending Stocks
2,384
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.60
3.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
50.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,929
4,201
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
195
Imports 41 72 33 25 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,145
4,426
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,900
1,950
Seed & Residual
105
107
146
109
126
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,842
1,940
1,985
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,949
4,061
Ending Stocks
365
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.05
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

16. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

18. Current Corn Futures
3.50
3.11
Source: CME Group, 9/15/2016

19. Current Soybean Futures
9.09
8.94
Source: CME Group, 9/15/2016

20. 2016/17 Crop Margins

21. 2017/18 Crop Margins

22. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

23. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

24. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: