1. Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Crop Outlook in 2011
Chariton, Iowa
June 16, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
90.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
158.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
13,200
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
730
Imports 14 8 25 20
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,180
13,950
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,140
5,150
5,000
Ethanol
3,709
4,568
5,050
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,371
1,400
1,405
Exports
1,849
1,987
1,900
1,800
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,450
13,255
Ending Stocks
695
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.35
6.50
Big adjustments are in acreage, reduction of 1.5 million acres in planted and 1.9 million acres in harvested. Results in a drop of 305 million bushels in production, down to 13.2 billion bushels. Feed demand was lowered 100 million bushels, but ethanol and export demand were held steady. So ending stocks fell 205 million to 695 million bushels, 35 million below the estimate for the 2010 crop. With the ever increasing tightness in the corn market, the midpoint of the range for the 2011 season-average price moved up to $6.50 per bushel. 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
76.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
43.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,285
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
180
Imports 13 15
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,480
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,650
1,655
Seed & Residual
106
108
125
115
Exports
1,279
1,501
1,540
1,520
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,315
3,290
Ending Stocks
190
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.40
14.00
All of the action here is in the export numbers. Exports for 2010 were lowered 10 million bushels, but it’s still a record. Exports for 2011 were lowered 20 million bushels. The changes add 30 million bushels to ending stocks, but the market is still very tight. With the continued tightness in the soybean market, the 2011 season-average price estimate is centered on $14 per bushel, up $1 from last month. 3 3

4. Corn Planting Progress
With the slow planting progress in the eastern Corn Belt and Northern Plains, USDA has already pulled 1.5 million acres out of intended corn plantings.
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Area
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Comparison to 2008
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Soybean Area
Source: USDA-NASS

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 9 9

10. Corn – Argentina & Brazil
In the world market, we expect more corn production from South America and China.
Source: USDA 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 11 11

12. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil
South American soybeans are also looking to record production this coming year.
Source: USDA 12 12

13. Population 2010 2030 2050 (billion) World 6.852 8.249 9.256 China
2030
2050
(billion)
World
6.852
8.249
9.256
China
1.330
India
1.461
1.657
1.173
1.391
1.304
U.S.
0.310
0.374
0.439
Indonesia
0.243
0.289
0.313
Brazil
0.201
Pakistan
0.291
0.184
0.240
Ethiopia
0.278
Bangladesh
0.156
Nigeria
0.212
0.264
0.152
0.211
0.261
Russia
0.139
0.162
0.250
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

14. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

15. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

17. Export Pace vs. Last Year
Source: USDA, FAS

18. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

19. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

20. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

21. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

22. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 22 22

23. Ethanol Margin
Source: CARD

24. Ethanol Blending Advantage

25. Corn Grind for Ethanol

26. Ethanol Stocks

27. Projected Ethanol Margin
Source: CARD

28. Proj. Ethanol Blending Advantage

29. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

30. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

31. Projected Harvest Time Crop Margins

32. Corn Prices vs. Costs

33. Soybean Prices vs. Costs

34. Input Costs
Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, May 31, 2011

35. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Energy prices limiting recovery
US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation
Supply/demand concerns
Prevented planting and flooding taking out corn area
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.35, Soy $11.40
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.50, Soy $14.00
Futures (as of 6/15/2011): Corn $6.49, Soy $13.24

36. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: