1. Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture and Adaptation Opportunities Presentation to Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry Ed Tyrchniewicz P.Ag President, Agricultural Institute of Canada February 20 2003

3. Outline But agriculture is different – Elements of climate change and agriculture Benefits and concerns for agriculture Adaptation opportunities

4. But Agriculture is Different: Some Realities... Biological process of production is very dependent on climate and weather Climate variability is a fact of life – risk management Ag sector generally operates in global markets with narrow margins and limited opportunities to pass costs on to customers

6. But Agriculture is Different: Some More Realities... Process of policy making in agriculture is a shared federal-provincial responsibility Focus on short term income problems Expanding exports is seen as a solution; dealing with climate change is not Perception of agriculture as a polluter and destroyer of the environment

7. Elements of Climate Change Temperature Precipitation Variability more extreme weather events risk management

8. Sources of Greenhouse Gases CO 2 Fossil fuels, soil destruction, deforestation MethaneAgriculture, landfills, coal mines, gas production losses N 2 OSoil, Fossil fuels, Fertilizer

9. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Agriculture’s Emissions

11. Benefits to Agriculture potentially more heat units longer frost free season increase moisture in some drought prone areas of Eastern Canada CO 2 growth enhancement

12. Concerns for Agriculture  increased variability in climate  raised sea level on the East and West Coasts  increased and decreased soil moisture in different parts of Canada  more/different weeds and bugs  more erosion

13. Changes in Ecozone Boundaries Present DayDoubled-CO2

14. Agriculture has a history of adapting to change technology markets policies climate

15. Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading

17. Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading

19. Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading

21. Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading

23. Adaptation Opportunities Conservation tillage Manure management Shelterbelts and permanent cover Carbon storage Carbon emissions trading

26. Blessed are the Flexible For They Shall Not Get Bent Out Of Shape