1. Can biofuels be sustainable by 2020? Sjaak Conijn

2. Highlights of WAB study for Ministery of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment Full title: Can Biofuels be sustainable by 2020? An assessment for an obligatory blending target of 10% in the Netherlands Authors: Bindraban, Bulte, Conijn, Eickhout, Hoogwijk & Londo Institutes: WUR, PBL, Ecofys & ECN

3. Background EU policy: 10% renewable energy in transport in 2020 for all member states Cramer criteria: a set of NL sustainability criteria where biofuels should comply with. Many studies on potentials in the far future (e.g. 2050), but what will happen in the near future (until 2020)?

4. What did we (not) do? Assessment of realistic availability of sustainable biofuels by 2020 for NL Not about potentials, but assessment of likelihood for certain processes to occur! Important aspect: timing of different processes Based on baseline scenarios without considering or recommending policy options

5. Land availability in “our world” Forests: production, primary and secondary; (un)protected Grasslands: from very low to high productivity; pastures and others; (un)protected “Other land”: snow/ice, tundra, deserts, etc. (ca. 3000) Cropland 4500 Forests 4000 Grassland s 4500 Cropland 1500 All figures in million ha; in total 13000

6. Baseline scenario (FAO, OECD, IAASTD) Estimations for 2020, only based on food/feed production Next to yield increases, more agricultural land is needed Pressure on (natural) forests will increase with 200 – 700 Cropland 4500 Forests 4000 Grassland s 4500 Cropland 1500 200300 400 0

7. WAB calculations For a 10% blending in NL in 2020, we need:600,000 – 800,000 ha fertile land For a global 10% blending in 2020, we need:85 – 175 million ha fertile land Results depend on  chosen crops and their yields in 2020,  share of 2 nd generation technology  share of residue use in 2 nd gen. (no land use) without 2 nd generation:105 – 175 million ha fertile land

8. WAB calculations For a 10% blending in NL in 2020, we can feed:2.7 – 3.6 million people (“EU-like diet”) For a global 10% blending in 2020, we can feed:315 – 455 million people (“EU-like diet”) Results depend on  share of 2 nd generation technology  share of residue use in 2 nd gen. (no land use) without 2 nd generation:455 million people (cf 800 – 1000)

9. WAB calculations A 10% blending in NL in 2020, can avoid:1.3 – 1.8% of current NL GHG emissions A global 10% blending in 2020, can avoid:0.9 – 1.2% of current global GHG emissions Results depend on  percentage reduction relative to fossil chain and  only refer to GHG reduction in the chain If natural lands are used (in)directly: already at 30% GHG effect = 0

10. Robust conclusions With the baseline (= more agriland needed) + land used for biofuel crops  biofuels target leads to …. Additional claims for land, water, nutrients, etc. Negative effects on biodiversity (intensific. and expansion) An increase in GHG due to (in)direct land use change Increase in food prices of 10 – 30% (equilibrium) Increase in fuel prices and costs to society

11. Major uncertainties until 2020 Agricultural development? Accelerating productivity increase = time consuming process Amount and quality of marginal lands Conversion technologies? 2nd generation needs relatively large investments Socio-economic development? Small-holder farmer or large oil (trading) companies Change in (stability of) food prices Environmental consequences? Increased use of resources like water and nutrients and biocides

12. What can policy do? (= not WAB) Option 1: single measures Lower the obligatory target (10 -> 5%) Use only 2 nd generation biofuels Use only certified biofuels according to sustain. criteria Risks or threats 1. Biodiversity loss 2. More food insecure people 3. More GHG emission 4. Deteriorating local environment Biofuel policy for 1. Energy security 2. Rural development 3. Less GHG emission

13. What can policy do? (= not WAB) Option 2: Integrative policies (preferred) Increase agricultural productivity at higher rates than BAU Safeguard biodiversity hotspots (incl. bufferzones) and carbon-rich areas Protect local environments, incl. (agro)biodiversity After the above: find room for biofuels crops More specifically related to option 2 Develop tools for monitoring (in)direct effects at all levels Put more effort in sustain. schemes (e.g. Round Tables) Link compensation mechanisms to stimulating agricultural development

14. Internet address WAB study http://www.pri.wur.nl/UK/newsagenda/news/biofuels150609.ht m http://www.pri.wur.nl/UK/newsagenda/news/biofuels150609.ht m Thank you for your attention

15. Idea EU should only use biofuels from countries that have achieved at least a minimum threshold for yield increase; have protected their biodiversity & C-rich areas effectively and have lowered their number of food-insecure people