1. AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK Meeting the Needs of the Renewable Energy Industry  Understanding Sector Roles Panalist: Justin Sharp Iberdrola Renewables, USA

2. AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK Where are the primary knowledge gaps? Who should contribute to filling the knowledge gaps?

3. 3 Short Range Forecasting Skill is Inadequate For Industry Needs Typical vendor verification Evaluates by eye –Tracks well Calculate MAE or RMSE. –MAE here is fairly low: 9.33% Look closely at the ramps

4. 4 Plotting Hourly Error is Revealing Long periods with small errors Record is punctuated by large errors collocated with ramps Let’s looker closer at one ramp Election Day!! Daily MAE = 13.6 % Six Hour MAE = 26.6% Max Hourly Error>80%!

5. 5 Daily MAE = 13.6 % Six Hour MAE = 26.6% Max Hourly Error>80%!

6. 6 Typical measures of forecasting effectiveness give equal weight for periods with little change to output and ramp events. Amount of time with stable output far exceeds the amount of time for ramp events Forecast accuracy is easily obtained during periods of no change Automated forecasts typically lag ramp events creating problems associated with large imbalances

7. 7 Other Knowledge/Technology Gaps Inadequate data –Core input for statistical, dynamical and human forecasting and analysis NWP –High resolution RR forecasts with near real-time data assimilation –MOS output tuned to wind energy including short range adjustment to observations –Better parameterizations (especially of stable boundary layer, LLJ and convection) –Output and MOS tuned to heights relevant to wind energy (30 to 150 m) –Meaningful statistics: forecast confidence and verification Long range wind outlooks similar to ones for precipitation and temperature Climate change Impact of atmospheric conditions on machine performance All sectors have a role in all areas

8. AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK What are the proper roles for government, industry and academia? The wind industry needs better forecasts. We are agnostic about where they come from, but we don’t want to be denied access to any source be it government or private Accurate short range forecasting for wind energy is too big and too important for the private sector to solve on its own.

9. 9 Proper Roles Thoughts for Discussion NOAA: –Data assimilation and modeling at highest resolution possible –Enable centralized data infrastructure. Protect data confidentiality Government Labs: –Maintain and improve mesoscale models/DA –Tech transfer to NOAA and private sector Academia: –Fundamental scientific research in all relevant areas. –Partner in science and technology transfer AWI: –Customized products focused on specific client needs –Convert weather data into weather information. Examples: power forecasts, decision support tools, trading tools –Value add evolves in time

10. AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK What technology transfer practices should be explored?

11. 11 Technology Transfer WRF for dummies! –Private sector can now perform NWP that was impossible for NCEP a few years ago –WRF model developments are transferred to model user community via MMM –BUT WRF is becoming cluttered and more and more it requires users who have time to be on top of every scheme and what works with what Use Government Labs to migrate the best research and development into the private sector via custom solutions? –Customer pays for turnkey solution helping support further research –All research would be public domain but specific solutions would be IP –Is this acceptable? Open to debate.

12. AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK How can all parties leverage their expertise to move the nation forward to improve the adoption of renewables?

13. 13 A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats? Partnership between all players to promote understanding of challenges –The wind industry has got ahead of itself. Fundamental science needs to catch up rapidly –The DOE workshop in Broomfield, Colorado in Jan 2008 was a good start –Outreach into the industry beyond the frontline meteorologists Vendors are struggling to move the science forward and it really isn’t their job –They filled a gap and did initial tech transfer but this has slowed down Academic research: how do we close the needs gap? Work out the Government role that is acceptable to all stakeholders (industry, forecast vendors and government) and define transparent Government goals.

14. Contact Information Justin Sharp, PhD Manager, Wind Asset Management Meteorology 1125 NW Couch Street, Suite 700 Portland, OR 97209 503-796-7063 justin.sharp@iberdrolausa.com AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK