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Climate Science Programs under the USGCRP: The Chronology and Development of the Climate Science Program in the PNW Climate Science in the Public Interest.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Science Programs under the USGCRP: The Chronology and Development of the Climate Science Program in the PNW Climate Science in the Public Interest."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Science Programs under the USGCRP: The Chronology and Development of the Climate Science Program in the PNW Climate Science in the Public Interest Amy Snover Climate Impacts Group University of Washington EPA Region 10 Climate Change TMDL Pilot 25 June 2012

2 Useful climate information matches decision makers’ scales of analysis, assessment and planning

3 Development of Capacity to Project Local Hydroclimatic Conditions The scenarios of future hydroclimatic conditions relevant to development of a PNW climate change TMDL pilot result from 15+ years of research on regional climate, statistical and dynamical downscaling, and hydrologic modeling & analysis. They are the fruits of a multi-million dollar investment by NOAA, Washington State, federal, state and local water management agencies (USBR, USACOE, BPA, NWPCC; IDWR, ODWR, BC-Env) begun in 1995.

4 Time GCM Input (time periods) Emissions Scenarios Down- scaling Spatial Resolution Driving Data Studies 1997 1° Nijssen et al. 1997 1999 1/4° Matheussen et al. 1999 IPCC AR2 2 GCMs (2 x 1 decade) 1Delta1/8°1961-97 Hamlet et al. 1999a,b IPCC AR3 4 GCMs (2 x 1 decade) 1Delta1/8°1961-97 Mote et al. 2003 IPCC AR4 20 GCM composite (3 x 30 yr avgs) A1B, B1Delta1/16°1915-2006 WACCIA (climate, salmon, hydrology chapters) 2009 20 GCMs (various) A1B, B1Three ways 1/16°1915-2006 Hamlet et al. in review Increasing Use More Streamflow Locations Increasing Temporal Resolution

5 The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project A comprehensive suite of 21 st century hydro/climate scenarios for almost 300 sites in the PNW, including projections of: streamflow evapotranspiration flood & low flow statistics precip, temp soil moisture snowpack Funded by: WA Ecology, BPA, NWPCC, OR Dept WR, BC Environment. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/

6 PNW Hydroclimatic Scenarios 2020s – mean 2010-2039; 2040s – mean 2030-2059; 2080s – mean 2070-2099 Downscaling Approach A1B Emissions Scenario B1 Emissions Scenario Hybrid Delta hadcm cnrm_cm ccsm3 echam5 echo_g cgcm3.1_t4 7 pcm1 miroc_3.2 ipsl_cm4 hadgem1 2020s109 2040s109 2080s109 Transient BCSD hadcm cnrm_cm ccsm3 echam5 echo_g cgcm3.1_t4 7 pcm1 1950- 2098+ 77 Delta Method composite of 10 2020s11 2040s11 2080s11

7 Data ProductSpatial DomainGCM InputDown- scaling Studies Gridded and Point Climate and Hydrologic Scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin 20 GCMs (A1B, B1) Three methods WA Ecology, BPA, NWPCC, OR DWR, BC ME (Hamlet et al. in review, www.hydro.washington.edu/286 0/) Western US projections for resource management 4 river basins: Columbia, upper Missouri, Colorado, Great Composite & bracketing scenarios from XX GCMs (A1B, B1, A2) Delta USFS, USFWS (Littell et al 2011; http://cses.washington.edu/data /r1r6.shtml) Climate change projections for WA/OR USFS lands USFS lands in OR & WA 10 GCMs (A1B, B1) Three methods USFS http://cses.washington.edu/data /usfs_orwa.shtml Fine-scale monthly climate change and swe for greater PNW (1) US PNW (2) Western North America, incl. BC & AK panhandle to 60N 20 GCMs (A1B, B1) Four methods (includes RCM) http://cses.washington.edu/data /met30s.shtml http://cses.washington.edu/data /swe30s.shtml. CA coming soon!

8 Data ProductSpatial DomainGCM InputDown- scaling Studies Gridded and Point Climate and Hydrologic Scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin 20 GCMs (A1B, B1) Three methods WA Ecology, BPA, NWPCC, OR DWR, BC ME (Hamlet et al. in review, www.hydro.washington.edu/286 0/) Western US projections for resource management 4 river basins: Columbia, upper Missouri, Colorado, Great Composite & bracketing scenarios from XX GCMs (A1B, B1, A2) Delta USFS, USFWS (Littell et al 2011; http://cses.washington.edu/data /r1r6.shtml) Climate change projections for WA/OR USFS lands USFS lands in OR & WA 10 GCMs (A1B, B1) Three methods USFS http://cses.washington.edu/data /usfs_orwa.shtml Fine-scale monthly climate change and swe for greater PNW (1) US PNW (2) Western North America, incl. BC & AK panhandle to 60N 20 GCMs (A1B, B1) Four methods (includes RCM) http://cses.washington.edu/data /met30s.shtml http://cses.washington.edu/data /swe30s.shtml.

9 Data ProductSpatial DomainGCM InputDown- scaling Studies Gridded and Point Climate and Hydrologic Scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin 20 GCMs (A1B, B1) Three methods WA Ecology, BPA, NWPCC, OR DWR, BC ME (Hamlet et al. in review, www.hydro.washington.edu/286 0/) Western US projections for resource management 4 river basins: Columbia, upper Missouri, Colorado, Great Composite & bracketing scenarios from XX GCMs (A1B, B1, A2) Delta USFS, USFWS (Littell et al 2011; http://cses.washington.edu/data /r1r6.shtml) Climate change projections for WA/OR USFS lands USFS lands in OR & WA 10 GCMs (A1B, B1) Three methods USFS http://cses.washington.edu/data /usfs_orwa.shtml Fine-scale monthly climate change and swe for greater PNW (1) US PNW (2) Western North America, incl. BC & AK panhandle to 60N 20 GCMs (A1B, B1) Four methods (includes RCM) http://cses.washington.edu/data /met30s.shtml http://cses.washington.edu/data /swe30s.shtml. These Data Sets reflect a multi-million dollar investment since 1995 in statistical and dynamical downscaling, and hydrologic modeling and analysis. More recent data products & current projects leverage heavily off this investment. These Data Sets reflect a multi-million dollar investment since 1995 in statistical and dynamical downscaling, and hydrologic modeling and analysis. More recent data products & current projects leverage heavily off this investment.

10 Finer-Scale Modeling - DHSVM Physically based, distributed model 150 meter resolution, 3hr time-step Implementations: Portland water supply Seattle water supply Central Puget Sound water supply Puget Sound landcover change experiments Snohomish basin: climate change & salmon recovery

11 Existing hydroclimatic scenarios support impacts assessment and decision making based on consistent assumptions across a range of spatial scales and locations in the PNW and across the western US These data products continue to be leveraged to create custom-tailored products and analyses Climate Science in the Public Interest The existing architecture for hydrologic modeling, data management and delivery was designed to support cheaper and easier development of future scenarios

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