1. 1 Climate change impacts and adaptation: An international perspective Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology www.global-ecology.org

2. 2 Evolving perspectives on impacts Developing concepts on the role of the IPCC Adaptation in the response portfolio

3. 3 IPCC AR4 - 2007 Hundreds of top scientists Comprehensive assessment Multi-stage, broad-based, monitored review Plenary approval line-by-line, by governments

4. 4 Findings of the AR4 Warming is unequivocal Most warming over last 50 years very likely due to human influences

5. 5 Findings of the AR4: 2 Warming will continue “No policy” range for 2100 –Lowest scenario: 1.1-2.9˚C –Highest scenario: 2.0-5.4˚C WG1 SPM p13

6. 6 Findings of the AR4: 3 Damages from climate change –$3 to $95 per ton CO 2 2030 costs of CO 2 stabilization –3% of GDP to a net benefit for GDP WG3 SPM p11

7. 7 “Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised.” WG1 SPM p 16 Findings of the AR4: 4

8. 8 Wide range of documented impacts Vast regional variation Vulnerability linked to poverty, health, institutions, governance Findings of the AR4

9. 9 The “standard” model Impacts Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

10. 10 The “standard” model Impacts Forcing Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

11. 11 The “revised” model Impacts Feedbacks Modified from Meehl et al. IPCC 2007 (AR4 WG1, Ch 10) p 753

12. 12 Forcing How do actual emissions compare with the scenarios explored in the IPCC AR4?

13. 13 Based on IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000 Fossil intensive, industrialized Advanced technology, industrialized Diversified, local solutions

14. 14 Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS, updated at http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbontrends/index.htm 1990 - 1999: 0.9% y -1 2000 - 2007: 3.5% y -1 185018701890191019301950197019902010 2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C [Total Anthrop.Emis.:8.5+1.5 = 10.0 Pg]

15. 15 Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS

16. 16 Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS (with 2006 and 2007 from CDIAC)

17. 17 Finding the mechanism Carbon intensity Of economic activity Per capita GDP Population size

18. 18 Anthropogenic C Emissions: Carbon Intensity of GDP Raupach et al. Biogeosciences 2008 Factor (relative to 1980) World, including 2006 Emissions Population Wealth = per capita GDP Carbon intensity of DGP

19. 19 Forcing Recent emissions were at or above the trajectory of the full range explored in the AR4 High recent emissions mostly due to rapid economic growth Climate on a trajectory that has not been explored

20. 20 Feedbacks Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

21. 21 Feedbacks Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

22. 22 Feedbacks Are climate responses of the land and oceans acting to intensify or suppress climate changes?

23. 23 Feedbacks: Permafrost 10.5 x 10 6 km 2, 24% of N Hemisphere land surface “Modeled” dramatic loss by 2100 –4 x 10 6 km 2 remain under B1 –1 x 10 6 km 2 remain under A2 Permafrost carbon –500 Pg yedoma –1100 Pg non-yedoma, non-peat –60 Pg peat bogs Lawrence & Slater GRL 2005, Zimov et al. Science 2005, Tarnocai et al. JGR 2009

24. 24 Feedbacks: Permafrost Yedoma sediments –Pleistocene roots –Highly decomposable –Deep exposure from thermokarst erosion –Up to 30% released as CH 4 Zimov et al. Science 2006, Walter et al. Science 2006, Schuur et al. BioScience 2008

25. 25 Feedbacks Dynamic coupling between climate and permafrost carbon cycle not included in AR4 results

26. 26 In sum Rapid emissions growth since 2000 –May add 50 PgC or more to required reductions Thawing permafrost releases CO 2 and CH 4 –May add 100-750 PgC e to required reductions

27. 27 Needs for adaptation Climate change continues, even if CO 2 emissions stabilize Lack of progress in limiting emissions Continued skepticism about the costs of large reductions

28. 28 lists WG2 in the AR5: Beyond lists

29. 29 Table TS.3. (lower) Examples of global impacts projected for changes in climate (and sea level and atmospheric CO 2 where relevant) IPCC AR4 WG2 TS

30. 30 AR5: Opportunities Multi-stressor environment Risk management –Supporting good decisions Adaptation –Beyond generalities Costing –Common framework for impacts, adaptation, and mitigation Take advantage of full range of available knowledge

31. 31 Adaptation in the arc of the IPCC 100% climate-change100% multi-stress impact Early warning Protective structures Activity shifting Effective responses Early warning Protective structures Activity shifting Effective responses Win-win strategies Multi-stress solutions AR4AR5

32. 32

33. 33

34. 34 Mitigation Adaptation

35. 35 Core issues for the AR5 Boundary between adaptation and coping Managing short-term responses to avoid long-term maladaption Balancing development and sustainability Contributing to Millennium Development Goals International dimensions

36. 36 International dimensions CAM: an adaptation analog to the CDM? Perspectives on moving and activity switching? Interactions with security and conflict?