1. Strategies for power generation in Cyprus Dr. Andreas Poullikkas Electricity Authority of Cyprus 0 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23 rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

2. Contents Energy demand and climate changeEnergy demand and climate change EU energy policyEU energy policy –Main objective and strategy –Future power systems Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system Cyprus challengesCyprus challenges –Integration of RES-E technologies –The case of CSP technology ConclusionsConclusions 1 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

3. Energy demand and climate change Present and future status 2 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

4. Energy demand and climate change 3 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Global primary energy Source: e2050, 2006.

5. Energy demand and climate change 4 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Night lights in 2000 Source: e2050, 2006.

6. Energy demand and climate change 5 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Night lights in 2070 Source: e2050, 2006.

7. Energy demand and climate change 6 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Global warming today ! Source: J.R. Petit et al, Nature, 1999. Source: J.R. Petit et al, Nature, 1999.

8. Energy demand and climate change 7 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Source: U.S. National Climatic Data Center, 2001. Global warming

9. EU energy policy The future energy systems 8 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

10. EU energy policy Main objective limit the global temperature increase to 2°C by 2020 (compared to pre-industrial levels)limit the global temperature increase to 2°C by 2020 (compared to pre-industrial levels) Main strategy an EU commitment to achieve at least a 20% reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels)an EU commitment to achieve at least a 20% reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) 9 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Energy for a changing world

11. EU energy policy How ? efficient conversion and use of energy in all sectors of the economyefficient conversion and use of energy in all sectors of the economy full liberalization and interconnection of energy systemsfull liberalization and interconnection of energy systems decarbonization of the transport system through switching to alternative fuelsdecarbonization of the transport system through switching to alternative fuels diversification of the energy mix in favor of renewables and low-carbon conversion technologies for electricity, heating and coolingdiversification of the energy mix in favor of renewables and low-carbon conversion technologies for electricity, heating and cooling 10 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

12. EU energy policy Towards a low carbon future: European Strategic Energy Technology Plan 2015 construction and operation to 12 large scale demonstrations of CO 2 capture and storage technologies in commercial power generation2015 construction and operation to 12 large scale demonstrations of CO 2 capture and storage technologies in commercial power generation 2020 full commercialization of the above technologies2020 full commercialization of the above technologies 2020 share of renewable energy sources in energy production will reach 20%2020 share of renewable energy sources in energy production will reach 20% 2020 measures for the increase of energy efficiency in all sectors will achieve a 20% reduction of the primary energy use2020 measures for the increase of energy efficiency in all sectors will achieve a 20% reduction of the primary energy use 2030 electricity and heat will be produced from low carbon sources and extensive near-zero emission fossil fuel power plants with CO 2 capture and storage2030 electricity and heat will be produced from low carbon sources and extensive near-zero emission fossil fuel power plants with CO 2 capture and storage 2030 use of 2 nd generation bio-fuels and hydrogen fuel cells in the transport sector2030 use of 2 nd generation bio-fuels and hydrogen fuel cells in the transport sector 2050 switch to low carbon should be completed; overall energy mix that could include2050 switch to low carbon should be completed; overall energy mix that could include –large shares for renewables –sustainable coal and gas –sustainable hydrogen –Generation IV fission power and –fusion 11 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus increase of research budget in energy by 50%

13. EU energy policy 12 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus EU energy system today* (coal, oil, nuclear) (natural gas) * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3

14. EU energy policy 13 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus EU energy system in 2020-30* (coal, oil, nuclear, natural gas) (coal, oil, natural gas) * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3

15. EU energy policy 14 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus EU energy system in 2040-50* (coal, nuclear, natural gas) * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3

16. EU vision for power systems 15 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Today Tomorrow: CCS, RES, DG and hydrogen storage EU energy policy Source: EC, 2007. Source: EC, 2007.

17. The EU energy policy Main ingredients of future sustainable electric systems –Renewable energy sources –Distributed generation –Zero emission power plants –Storage devices Development of new sustainable technologies and infrastructure 16 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

18. Cyprus power generation system Existing and future plans 17 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

19. Power generation system statistics (year 2009) Small island isolated power systemSmall island isolated power system Installed capacity 1388ΜWeInstalled capacity 1388ΜWe Generation 5178GWhGeneration 5178GWh Peak load 1103MWePeak load 1103MWe Average power generation cost ~9€c/kWhAverage power generation cost ~9€c/kWh 18 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Cyprus power generation system

20. Present generation system 19 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus 6x30MWe steam turbines 4x37,5MWe gas turbines 6x60MWe steam turbines 2x50MWe internal combustion engines 3x130MWe steam turbines 1x220MWe combined cycle 1x38MWe gas turbine Steam turbines and ICE: HFO Gas turbines and combined cycle: diesel 1x11MWe internal combustion engines Cyprus power generation system

21. Projects under development 1x220MWe combined cycle plant in 2014 (diesel or natural gas)1x220MWe combined cycle plant in 2014 (diesel or natural gas) Projects under design 1x220MWe combined cycle plant in 2019 (natural gas)1x220MWe combined cycle plant in 2019 (natural gas) 20 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Cyprus power generation system

22. Existing RES-E (2010) 21 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Cyprus power generation system Late 2010

23. Cyprus challenges RES penetration 22 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

24. Short-term (2010-2020)Short-term (2010-2020) –Switching to natural gas –Integration of RES-E technologies Mid-term (2020-2030)Mid-term (2020-2030) –Switching to low carbon energy mix Long-term (2040-2050)Long-term (2040-2050) –Switching to green hydrogen economy 23 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Cyprus challenges

25. A case study A strategic plan for the promotion of renewable energy sources in the Cyprus electricity generation system* * A study undertaken under the direct supervision of Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority (CERA) 24 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Integration of RES-E technologies

26. Main objective to assess the unavoidable increase in the cost of electricity of the Cyprus generation system by the integration of the necessary RES-E technologies for Cyprus to achieve its national RES energy targetto assess the unavoidable increase in the cost of electricity of the Cyprus generation system by the integration of the necessary RES-E technologies for Cyprus to achieve its national RES energy target 25 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Integration of RES-E technologies

27. Important factors Fuel avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration fuel consumption reducedFuel avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration fuel consumption reduced CO 2 avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration CO 2 emissions reducedCO 2 avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration CO 2 emissions reduced Conventional power system operating cost: by increasing RES- E penetration the conventional power system operating cost is increased due to the increased requirements of conventional reserve capacityConventional power system operating cost: by increasing RES- E penetration the conventional power system operating cost is increased due to the increased requirements of conventional reserve capacity 26 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Integration of RES-E technologies

28. 27 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Optimization model (genetic algorithm implementing IPP and WASP models) Integration of RES-E technologies

29. 28 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus RES-E production cost at IRR=0% Integration of RES-E technologies

30. 29 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Integration of RES-E technologies RES-E penetration cost at IRR=12% RES-E penetration at 16% by 2020

31. 30 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Integration of RES-E technologies RES-E installed capacity at 16% penetration

32. 31 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Integration of RES-E technologies RES-E energy mix at 16% penetration

33. 32 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Integration of RES-E technologies Power Generation system energy mix with 16% RES-E penetration

34. A case study The cost of integration of parabolic trough CSP plants in isolated Mediterranean power systems Poullikkas A., Hadjipaschalis I., Kourtis G. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2009 33 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus The case of CSP technology

35. Existing system Technical characteristicsTechnical characteristics Economic characteristicsEconomic characteristics Committed plants Technical characteristicsTechnical characteristics Economic characteristicsEconomic characteristics 34 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus The case of CSP technology

36. Candidate scenarios for expansion Expansion with natural gas combined cycle technologies of 220MWe capacity, (BAU scenario)Expansion with natural gas combined cycle technologies of 220MWe capacity, (BAU scenario) Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant (no thermal storage) in combination with BAUExpansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant (no thermal storage) in combination with BAU Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP plant (no thermal storage) in combination with BAUExpansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP plant (no thermal storage) in combination with BAU Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant (10 hours thermal storage) in combination with BAUExpansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant (10 hours thermal storage) in combination with BAU Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP plant (10 hours thermal storage) in combination with BAUExpansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP plant (10 hours thermal storage) in combination with BAU Expansion with parabolic trough CSP technologies of 50MWe capacity, operating hours 24h/dayExpansion with parabolic trough CSP technologies of 50MWe capacity, operating hours 24h/day 35 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus The case of CSP technology

37. 36 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus WASP IV (Wien Automatic System Planning) Find the optimal generation expansion policy for an electric utility system within user-specified constraintsFind the optimal generation expansion policy for an electric utility system within user-specified constraints –Bj : Objective function attached to the expansion plan j –I : Capital investment costs –S : Salvage value of investment costs –F : Fuel Costs –M : Non-fuel operation and maintenance costs –Φ : Cost of energy not served –t : time in years (1, 2, …., T) –T : length of the study period Possible constraints: level of system reliability, annual number of new power units, amount of environmental emissions, annual usage of selected fuels, annual energy generation by selected plantsPossible constraints: level of system reliability, annual number of new power units, amount of environmental emissions, annual usage of selected fuels, annual energy generation by selected plants The case of CSP technology

38. 37 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus Average generation system electricity unit cost (for Cyprus) The case of CSP technology

39. Summary Main ingredients of future sustainable electric systemsMain ingredients of future sustainable electric systems –Renewable energy sources –Distributed generation –Zero emission power plants –Storage devices RES-E : a challenge for CyprusRES-E : a challenge for Cyprus 38 Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus