1. Enough for all? Bernd Möller, Ph.D. Sustainable Energy Planning & Management Group Department of Development and Planning Aalborg University, Denmark Biomass resource mapping under spatio-economic constraints

2. Spatial and economic constraints of biomass for energy Production of photosynthetic biomass is highly dispersed Biomass “consumes” land: area competition Life cycle of biomass: include substitution effects CO 2 neutrality only in the long run: monitoring and maintenance of global forest carbon stocks Economies of scale, energy efficiency and competition with fossil fuels Sourcing in DK: import vs. local supply strategies

3. Global biomass is unevenly distributed Global distribution of biomass flux in energy units. Source: Sørensen, 2001

4. The geography of biomass supply Forest biomass (left) and population (right) are unequally distributed in Europe, suggesting significant problems in connecting sources and users. Large scale trade of biomass is just at its commence: what will the future bring? Data sources: European Forest Institute 2003; Eurostat 2006

5. Renewable energy in Denmark: Biomass 63,4 PJ, 7.3% of prim. energy cons. Source: Energy Statistics 2005, Danish Energy Authority.

6. Resource geography and technology aspects Feedstock: residues versus dedicated crops –Likely impacts on nutrient balance, soil humus, water table, biodiversity or greenhouse gases –Overall energy balance of energy crops can be poor –Domestic energy crops lead to substitution effects of global commodities Energy technologies –Difficult to burn or convert, learning curves Transport and allocation –Biomass is unequally distributed and often inaccessible

7. Domestic biomass potential & consumption [PJ]Potential (ENS) Demand (2005) Share utilised Demand (ref. 2030) Potential (Felby) Demand (IDA 2030) Straw551832.5%275525 Wood, total4038.395.84540 Manure, biogas4049.3%6.54032 Manure, fibre fract.000.0%01080 Energy crops000.0%014454 M.H.Waste30 99.7%5230 Sum16589.554.3%131417180 Source: Danish Association of Engineers (IDA), Energy Plan 2030

8. Data source: Energy Statistics 2007, Danish Energy Agency

9. Available straw resources and competing uses mapped using CTtools, Conterra Aps Competing uses of residual straw and its geographical distribution Harvested straw: 5.5 Mio tons Straw available for energy: 0.9 Mio tons

10. Bioenergy systems in Denmark Biomass is used in decentralised district heating and cogeneration plants (left); in centralised plants (right); and in 20% of all buildings.

11. Location, resources and economy Distribution of biomass resources in a region establishes transport costs and plant size For a given location an optimal plant size can be defined

12. Möller, B. and Nielsen, P.S. (2007): Analysing transport costs of Danish forest wood chip resources by means of continuous cost surfaces. Biomass & Bioenergy 31 (5) 291–298. Wood chips in Denmark: calculating spatially explicit costs of supply Plant location and size influence supply costs.

13. Allocation of biomass to plants Allocated straw resources: Who will have the purchasing power when resources become scarce? Adding new demand will affect local heat prices.

14. Conclusions Biomass resources must be analysed as an integrated part of future energy systems: –Relative to regional availability (potentials & costs) –Including economies and efficiencies of scale –With respect to regional allocation Energy crops and residual biomass can not necessarily be treated as any other commodity Eventually biomass will become as scarce as fossil fuels and food.

15. Please visit www.energyplanning.aau.dk for information on the international M.Sc. Programme Sustainable Energy Planning & Management at Aalborg University