1. California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov Customer-side Distributed Generation Impacts CED 2013 Preliminary Demand Analysis Working Group DG PUP June 6, 2013 Asish Gautam Demand Analysis Office Electricity Supply Analysis Division Asish.Gautam@energy.ca.gov / 916-654-3900

2. Key Sources of Data Annual/Quarterly power plant reporting to CEC (Form CEC 1304) Emerging Renewables Program Self-Generation Incentive Program California Solar Initiative New Solar Homes Partnership POU PV (SB 1 Report to CEC) California Solar Initiative – Thermal California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

3. Key Sources of Data DG incentive program EM&V reports o CSI 2010 Impact Evaluation (2007 – 2010) o SGIP 11 th Year Impact Evaluation (2002 – 2011) DOE/EIA PV cost projections developed for AEO 2013 CEC sponsored report on CHP market potential (ICF CHP Policy Analysis) California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

4. Statewide Non-PV Energy Impact California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

5. Statewide Non-PV Peak Impact California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

6. Statewide PV Energy Impact California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

7. Statewide PV Peak Impact California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

8. Key Uncertainties NEM redesign Retail electric tariff redesign Federal Tax Credit CHP o Interconnection o Standby and departing load charges California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov 8

9. Statewide Onsite Use by Technology California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

10. Statewide Onsite Use by Sector California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

11. Statewide Non-Residential Onsite Use California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

12. Statewide Onsite PV Use by Sector California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

13. Statewide Onsite Non-PV Use by Sector California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

14. 2012 PV Installed Capacity by County and Sector (Top Ten) California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

15. 2012 Non-PV Installed Capacity by County and Sector (Top Ten) California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

16. Statewide Onsite Use by Source California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

17. 2012 Onsite Use by Planning Area and Technology Type California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

18. QFER CHP Report California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

19. Average PV Installed Cost and Rebate California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

20. Average Fuel Cell Cost and Rebate California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

21. Average Microturbine Cost and Rebate California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

22. Average IC Engine Cost and Rebate California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

23. Predictive Modeling (Residential Sector PV/SHW) Underlying structure similar to payback/cash flow model used by EIA/NREL Payback calculations based on system and maintenance costs, incentives, and fuel rates Estimated payback applied to a Bass Diffusion adoption curve Results for adoption differ by demand scenario since projected fuel rates and number of homes vary by scenario California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

24. Predictive Modeling (Residential Sector PV/SHW) PV system cost and performance data come from incentive program data and EIA’s AEO 2013 forecast report SHW system cost and performance data based on CSI Thermal program database and CPUC sponsored study Residential sector model output used for system sizing and valuing net surplus compensation California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

25. Adoption Modeling California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov 25

26. Predictive Modeling (Non-Residential Sector PV) No predictive model Forecast based on trend analysis o Examine rate of growth in adoption based on DG incentive program data o Estimate growth and then estimated energy and peak impacts based on capacity/peak factors from DG EM&V reports California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

27. Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) Meeting onsite demand for power and two thermal end-uses: hot water and space heating CEUS survey data used to compile and summarize building electric and gas demand o ~ 2900 sites represented in survey o 12 Building Types o 4 Building Size Categories California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

28. Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) Use DrCEUS building energy use simulation tool o DrCEUS uses eQUEST building energy use software tool as a “front-end” to the more complex DOE 2.2 building energy use simulation tool which does the actual building energy demand simulation o Develop load shapes for CHP thermal analysis and economic modeling California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

29. CEUS Site Electric Profile – School California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov North CoastalSouth Coastal

30. CEUS Site Electric Profile – College California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov South CoastalNorth Coastal

31. DrCEUS Analysis - Electric Demand Large Hotel Demand Forecast Zone 4 (North Coastal) California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

32. DrCEUS Analysis - Hot Water Demand Large Hotel Demand Forecast Zone 4 (North Coastal) California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

33. DrCEUS Analysis - Space Heating Demand Large Hotel Demand Forecast Zone 4 (North Coastal) California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

34. DrCEUS Analysis - Distribution of Annual End-Use Consumption by Fuel Type North Coastal - Large Buildings California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

35. DrCEUS Analysis - Distribution of Annual End-Use Consumption by Fuel Type North Inland- Large Buildings California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

36. Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) CEUS profiles are then benchmarked to QFER calibrated Commercial sector model output and floorspace projections Map CEUS site profiles to retail electric/gas tariffs Retail electric/gas tariff details escalated based electric/gas rate forecast developed for CED 2013 Preliminary California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

37. Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov Sample tariff detail

38. Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) Estimate gas cost for CHP prime mover o Start with daily border prices and add transportation component o Use Malin border price for PGE and Southern California Border for SCG/SDGE o Gas cost escalated based on recent EAO gas forecast report California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

39. Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) CHP prime mover details come from CEC sponsored report conducted by ICF o Heat rate, installed cost, waste heat recovery, maintenance cost, etc o Use DrCEUS loadshapes and technology profiles to estimate impacts: generation, onsite use, export, and grid purchase California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

40. Predictive Modeling (Commercial Sector CHP) Incorporate SGIP incentives and Federal tax credit for CHP Adoption modeling same as Residential sector PV/SHW model California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov

41. Next Steps Data updates Revise Residential Sector model o Incorporate retail rates o Use RASS survey to develop residential profiles similar to method used in profiling CEUS survey for commercial sector o Incorporate NEM benefits Finalize Non-Residential PV model California Energy Commission www.energy.ca.gov