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Published byJaven Forde Modified over 9 years ago
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Rocky Mountain Crude Differentials A Suncor Perspective Tim Kirwin Crude Trader April 2006
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OPTIONAL TEXT Rocky Mountain Crude Differentials Executive Summary Rockies production increased versus anticipated decline Canadian crude production increasing, however Padd 4 refiners have not increased Canadian crude percentage Infrastructure is inadequate to handle supply/demand disruptions Quality of common stream Guernsey is heavier than historical Heavy industry wide turnaround maintenance Unplanned refinery maintenance Signs of over supply already taking place prior to refinery outages
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OPTIONAL TEXT Rocky Mountain Fundamentals Demand Unplanned outages in December 2005 lowered demand for local and Canadian crudes. Demand has been further reduced by industry wide refinery maintenance (including Suncor) mandated by the EPA to produce ultra clean fuels. Suncor was not a sweet buyer February/March The east plant continued to run at full capacity Both plants expected back to full capacity in April (Suncor running at 85% as of April 25 th )
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OPTIONAL TEXT Rocky Mountain Crude Differentials Refinery Supply Refineries are all different in what kinds and how much of any one crude they can run Refineries rarely able to process 100% of any crude type To fill up all refinery units and run at full capacity refineries make decisions based on Price Yield Availability LP determines optimum crude slate
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OPTIONAL TEXT 20% Naphtha 40% Distillate 40% Gas Oil OSA 12% LSR 19% Naphtha 8% Sweet Resid 35% Gas Oil 13% Diesel Sweet Crude 13% Kerosene 5% LSR 9% Naphtha 12% Kerosene 31% Asphalt 31% Gas Oil 12% Diesel Sour Crude
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OPTIONAL TEXT Differential widened in 2005, major move due to Suncor fire maintenance
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OPTIONAL TEXT Strong outright WTI prices have off-set wide differentials
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OPTIONAL TEXT Suncor Energy – overview Suncor is a major purchaser of Rockies crude: We have increased domestic crude runs since purchasing the refineries Suncor focuses on fair pricing to foster strong long-term relationships with crude suppliers Suncor’s oil sands production is increasing, but that production and the infrastructure to take it to market are planned years in advance. In 2005 less than 8% of Suncor crude came from Oil Sands Suncor has invested over $400 million in refinery upgrades. reliable demand for Rockies crude local refining means lower fuel prices increased employment, economic benefits, taxes/royalties
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OPTIONAL TEXT Suncor has increased Rockies crude purchases Barrels Per Day
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