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September 23, 2008 Khosrow Biglarbigi, INTEK Inc. Anton Dammer, U.S. Department of Energy Hitesh Mohan, INTEK Inc. Marshall Carolus, INTEK Inc. INTEK Economics.

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Presentation on theme: "September 23, 2008 Khosrow Biglarbigi, INTEK Inc. Anton Dammer, U.S. Department of Energy Hitesh Mohan, INTEK Inc. Marshall Carolus, INTEK Inc. INTEK Economics."— Presentation transcript:

1 September 23, 2008 Khosrow Biglarbigi, INTEK Inc. Anton Dammer, U.S. Department of Energy Hitesh Mohan, INTEK Inc. Marshall Carolus, INTEK Inc. INTEK Economics of Oil Shale Development in the United States SPE 116560

2 2 Economic Discussion Part I - Project Economics –Project costs –Economic price –Cash flow Part II – A new oil shale industry –Potential size –Economic hurdles/solutions –Benefits on U.S. economy $

3 SPE 116560 3 National Oil Shale Model Resource Screen Resource Economic Options Production Reserves Revenues & Costs Technology Surface U/G MIS In-Situ Economics

4 SPE 116560 4 Resource Base Analyzed Industry nominated tracts 79 Billion Barrels of resource in place Detailed geologic & petrophysical data Western Oil Shale

5 SPE 116560 5 43 Modified In-Situ Technologies Considered 1 2 Surface Mining / Surface Retort Underground Mining / Surface Retort True In-Situ

6 SPE 116560 6 First Generation Project Costs

7 SPE 116560 7 Canadian Oil Sands Operating Costs Source: Suncor, 2008 52% Increase

8 SPE 116560 8 And the Capital Costs are Increasing Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, April 2008 Production Start Date 20012003 20062007 20082010 $3.3 billion$10-11 billion 2011 Capital Costs of 100,000 bbl/day project 267% Increase

9 SPE 116560 9 Economic Price for Oil Shale Technology Generic Projects (Price: $/Bbl)

10 SPE 116560 10 Breakdown of Economic Price for Generic Surface Project $47/Bbl Cost of Capital $9 Operating Costs $18 Risk Premium $4 Transfer Payments $7 Taxes $9

11 SPE 116560 11 Cashflow of a Generic Oil Shale Project -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 510152025303540 After Tax Before Tax Year Cumulative Discounted After Tax Cashflow (MM$) Room for Government Action

12 SPE 116560 12 Impact of Incentives on Generic Cashflow -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 510152025303540 After Tax Before Tax Year Cumulative Discounted After Tax Cashflow (MM$) $10/Bbl Production Credit $5/Bbl Production Credit 15% investment Credit 10% Investment Credit Accelerated Depreciation

13 SPE 116560 13 Projected Production Potential (BOE) (Shale Oil in the U.S.) Base Tax Incentives RD&D Measured Accelerated

14 SPE 116560 14 Savings to U.S. Consumers

15 SPE 116560 15 Contribution to GDP

16 SPE 116560 16 New Jobs

17 SPE 116560 17 Savings on Foreign Imports

18 SPE 116560 18 Direct Local, State, And Federal Revenues Will Increase by $25 to $85 Billion by 2035

19 SPE 116560 19 For More Information http://www.unconventionalfuels.org


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