1. Fifth Tri-State Weather Conference Dr. David A. Robinson Professor, Department of Geography & New Jersey State Climatologist Rutgers University Western Connecticut State University October 18, 2014 Exploring Tri-State Climate Variability and Change Landing Lane, Piscataway, NJ 1 May 2014

2. NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

3. NJclimate.org Office of the NJ State Climatologist Data Information Knowledge Decision NJclimate.org

4. NJ Weather & Climate Network NJweather.org

5. NJclimate.org

6. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network: www.cocorahs.org 7AM 15 July – 7AM 16 July, 2014

7. NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

8. NJclimate.org Weather – Climate “Players”

9. NJclimate.org The big picture: a tri-state squeeze play

10. NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

11. NJclimate.org Climate past

12. NJclimate.org Climate is your personality………. Weather is your mood……….

13. NJclimate.org Plenty of moodiness……….

14. NJclimate.org 1938 Hurricane Wareham, MA Providence, RI Long Island

15. NJclimate.org Nor'easter: March 1962 Harvey Cedars

16. NJclimate.org 1960s Drought

17. NJclimate.org Floyd: 16 September 1999 Bound Brook New Brunswick

18. NJclimate.org 26-27 December 2010

19. NJclimate.org Manville, NJ Irene 29 August 2011 Windham, NY Weston, CT

20. NJclimate.org Irene rainfall: 28 August 2011

21. NJclimate.org 29 October 2011 snow storm Bergenfield Wantage 30 October

22. NJclimate.org Sandy Maximum Wind Gusts Oct 29-30, 2012

23. NJclimate.org Hoboken

24. NJclimate.org Mantoloking

25. NJclimate.org Holgate Photo: Will Randall-Goodwin

26. NJclimate.org Hundreds of thousands of trees down……

27. NJclimate.org Personality adjustment……….

28. NJclimate.org Human influences NOAA NCDC

29. NJclimate.org Indicators of change from multiple data sets National Assessment, 2014 (updated from Kennedy et al., 2010)

30. NJclimate.org Seasonal Snow Anomalies (snowcover.org)

31. NJclimate.org Stroeve et al EOS 2008 Arctic Sea Ice

32. NJclimate.org Ice loss from the two polar ice sheets Based on GRACE satellite observations From Wouters et al, 2013

33. NJclimate.org U.S. precipitation change Map: 1991-2012 compared to 1901-1960 Graphs: Decades Compared to 1901-1960 National Assessment, 2014

34. NJclimate.org U.S. temperature change Map: 1991-2012 compared to 1901-1960 Graphs: Decades Compared to 1901-1960 National Climate Assessment, 2014

35. NJclimate.org Increase in frost-free season length National Climate Assessment, 2014 1991-2012 relative to 1901-1960

36. NJclimate.org Global land & ocean temperature anomalies: 1880-2013 0.65 deg C/century

37. NJclimate.org Trends in annual mean Connecticut temperature; 1895-2013 47 F 52° F 1900 2010 data source: National Climatic Data Center

38. NJclimate.org Unusually warm and cold months in NJ

39. NJclimate.org

40. Offshore Water Temperatures: August 1983-2011

41. NJclimate.org Trends in annual mean New York precipitation: 1895-2013 35” 50” 1900 2010

42. NJclimate.org Unusually wet and dry months in NJ

43. NJclimate.org Change in amount of precipitation from very heavy events National Climate Assessment, 2014 Percent change 1958 – 2011 Very heavy equals the heaviest 1% of precipitation events Recent decades are also higher than the first half of the 20 th century

44. NJclimate.org Sea level rise: global and regional: 1880-present 1.7 mm/y NJ

45. NJclimate.org Local sea level rise and tidal flooding 1970-2012 Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014

46. NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

47. NJclimate.org Is climate presently changing in tri-state & elsewhere? Preponderance of evidence suggests climate change is occurring and humans are responsible for a significant portion of recent changes 1. theory 2. observations 3. models

48. NJclimate.org Theory Modeling

49. NJclimate.org National Climate Assessment, 2014 adapted from Huber and Knutti, 2012 Human and natural influences on 20 th century global temperature

50. NJclimate.org Surface air temperature and solar energy (from satellite & proxy sources) 1976-present National Assessment, 2014 source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC

51. NJclimate.org Outline for this morning 1. Greetings from the ONJSC 2. Climate system 3. Climate past to present 4. Causes of climate change 5. Our climate future

52. NJclimate.org  Rising temperatures  Steady or increasing precipitation  Increasing variability and extremes - storms, flood, drought, heat…….  Rising sea level The tri-state’s future climate

53. NJclimate.org Changing Annual and Seasonal Temperatures 2041-2070 minus 1971-2000 North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech. Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013

54. NJclimate.org Changing Annual and Seasonal Precipitation 2041-2070 minus 1971-2000 Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech. Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013 North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

55. NJclimate.org Projected increases in the number of days over 90 deg F National Assessment 2014 1971-2000 2041-2070

56. NJclimate.org More major storms ahead? …. future destructive storms are to be expected…… ……..with the atmosphere and ocean becoming primed for a greater frequency of such events.

57. NJclimate.org A change in extremes? 17 September 1999 16 April 2007 14 March 2010 28 August 2011 Manville # 2 crest 21.0’ (nearby Blackwells Mills: 1921-present) # 3 crest 19.2’ # 6 crest 16.2’ (1 May 2014 #7 crest 15.9’) # 1 crest 21.2’

58. NJclimate.org

59. Tidal flooding: Events per year present 2030 and 2045 Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014

60. NJclimate.org Summing up: Be it weather moodiness or long-term climate personality changes, a dull moment is rare to find. There is abundant evidence that the atmosphere, oceans and continents are primed to produce even more action, more variability, more change in the decades ahead. Continued vigilance is required to monitor, understand and predict the future behavior of the climate system.

61. NJclimate.org Thanks david.robinson@rutgers.edu Dave’s first weather observations Tenafly, NJ: circa some time in the 20 th century

62. NJclimate.org