1. AIM\ENDUSE Model with Application for India
P.R. Shukla

2. AIM/ENDUSE Model Structure

3. Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Structure

4. Structure of the AIM/End-Use Model
Energy
Energy Technology
Energy Service
- Oil
- Coal
- Gas
- Solar
- (Electricity)
- Boiler
- Power generation
- Blast furnace
- Air conditioner
- Automobile
- Heating
- Lighting
- Steel products
- Cooling
- Transportation
Energy Database
Technology Database
- Employees
- Lifestyle
- Energy type
- Energy price
- Energy constraints
- CO2 emission factor
- Technology price
- Energy consumption
- Service supplied
- Share
- Lifetime
Socio-economic Scenario
Technology
Energy Consumption
CO2 Emissions
Service Demand
- Industrial Structure
- Economic Growth
- Population Growth

5. AIM/ Emission Model Linkages
Socio-Economic Scenarios
GHGs Emissions
Cropland
Pasture
Forest
Biomass Farm
Other Land
Land Input
GDP
AIM/ Climate Model
AIM/ Impact Model
Bottom-up Model
Feedback
Land Equilibrium Model
Other
Inputs
Goods &
Service
Demand
Supply
Endo Use
Energy
Efficiency
Industrial
Process
Change
Exploitation
Technology
Conversion
End Use
Energy-Economic Model
Resource
Base
Population
Resource Base
Lifestyle
Production
Food
Consumption
Pattern
Social
Primary
Final
Energy Price
Goods and
Service Price
AIM/Emission-Linkage
Biomass

6. Iron and Steel, Cement, Petrochemical,
Pulp and Paper, Miscellaneous
Sectors and sub sectors
Energy
Conversion
Sectors
Sub sector
City Gas Production, Oil Refining, Electric Power Generation
Cooling and Heating, Hot Water Supply,
Lighting, Buildings, Locomotion, etc.
Passenger Transport, Freight
Transport
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Transportation

8. An example of sub-model structure (Japanese iron-steel industry)
Purchased coke
Iron ore
Limestone
Coal
Purchased
Terminal
electricity
Terminal
ZSS
Hot
Coke oven
Coke
Terminal
coke
oven gas
Coke
Smelting
quenching
reduction
Coke
furnace
equipment
Heat
Power device
Sintering
Terminal
Sinter
machine
Utility
Blast
Terminal
Hot
furnace
Blast furnace
metal
gas
Heat
Independent
Basic
power plant
Molten
oxygen
Basic oxygen
steel
furnace
furnace gas
Power device
Caster
Electricity
Slabs,
blooms,
billets
Reheating
Hot rolled
Reheating
furnace
Legend
steel products
furnace
: final service
Annealing
furnace
: service device
Terminal
: external energy
: internal
Cold rolled
Hot rolled
energy/service
steel products
steel products
Electric arc
furnace
flow of external energy
flow of heat
Scrap
and related goods
flow of electricity
An example of sub-model structure (Japanese iron-steel industry)
flow of other internal energy/service

10. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application for India

11. End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)
Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model
Indian Economy
End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)
Industry
Transport
Agriculture
Residential
Commercial
Steel
Urban
Rural
Cement
Aluminum
Sugar
Chlor-Alkali
Paper
Brick
Textiles
Fertilizer
Others

12. GDP

13. GVA Shares (Reference scenario)

14. Sectoral and Technological Detail in Indian AIM\ENDUSE
Sector Subsector Technl
Industry Steel 32
Aluminum 10
Cement 12
Brick 7
Paper 21
Caustic Soda
Soda Ash 14
Fertilizer 12
Sugar 18
Textiles 11
Others
Sector Subsector Technl
Transport 25
Residential
Urban Rural
Commercial 9
Agriculture 14
Total

15. Reference Energy System for Transport

16. Transport Technology Options
ROAD Vehicles
PASSENGER GOODS
2-Wheeler Heavy Truck (Diesel)
3-Wheeler Light Truck (Diesel)
Petrol Car Heavy Truck (CNG)
Diesel Car Light Truck (CNG)
CNG Car
RAIL Vehicles
Steam Loco
Diesel Loco
Electric Loco

17. Share of Transport in Service Sector18 15 12
Percent 9 6 3
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994

18. Growth of Traffic in India
Passenger (Billion PKms)
Goods (Billion TKms)
2500
800
Road
Rail
Air
Road
Rail
2000
600
1500
400
1000
200
500
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995

19. Road Transport Demand: Projections
Passenger
Goods
12000
3500
3000
10000
2500
Billion PKms
8000
Billion TKms
2000
6000
1500
4000
1000
2000
500
Annual Growth Rate = 5.1%
Annual Growth Rate = 4.5 %
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Year
Year

20. Transport Demand Projections
Air Transport
Rail Goods Transport
3500 80
3000 70 60
2500
PKms
TKms 50
2000 40
1500
Billion
Billion 30
1000 20
Annual Growth Rate = 4.2 %
500
Annual Growth Rate =4.9% 10
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Year
Year

21. Energy Consumption in Road and Rail Transport
Road Transport
Rail Transport
200
800
Coal
HSD
Electricity
HSD
Gasoline
CNG
160
600
120
Calories
Million Tonnes
400 80
Peta
200 40
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Year
Year

22. Carbon Emissions from Transport Sector
Annual Growth Rate = 4.5 %

23. Energy and Carbon Intensities in Transport Sector
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
0.28 14 13
0.26
Mega Joule / Rs. (1990 prices)
Ton Carbon / '000 Rs. 12
0.24 11
0.22 10
0.2
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Year
Year

24. Energy Consumption by Transport Modes

25. Energy Consumption in Brick Kilns
500
400
Coal
Biomass
300
Peta Joules
200
100
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035

26. Technology Mix in Brick Production
140
High Draught
VSBK
120
Clamps (Biomass)
100
Bull trend Kiln 2
Bull trend Kiln 1
Billion Nos. 80 60 40 20
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Year

27. Energy Intensity of Brick Kilns5
4.5
Giga Joule / '000 bricks 4
3.5 3
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035

28. Carbon Intensity of Bricks
0.076
0.068
0.06
Ton Carbon /'000 bricks
0.052
0.044
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035

29. Sectoral Primary Energy Consumption
50000
Industry
Residential
40000
Commercial
Agriculture
Transport
Power
30000
Peta Joules
20000
10000
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Year

30. Sectoral Electricity Consumption
1600
Industry
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Transport
1200
TWh
800
400
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035

31. Carbon Emissions by Fuels

32. Energy intensity of GDP
1.2 1
0.8
Peta Joules\billion Rs. (1993 proces)
0.6
0.4
0.2
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035

33. Carbon Intensity of GDP28 23 18
Ton Carbon\Million Rs. (1993 prices) 13 8 3
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035

34. SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)

35. NOX Emissions (Million Tons)

36. Carbon Emissions
2010
1995
2035