1. Overview of California’s System Yield Threats, Challenges, and the Need to Augment and Diversify Water Portfolios Robert Shibatani CEO & Principal Hydrologist The SHIBATANI GROUP, Inc.

2. Overview of California’s System Yield Main Points - Introduction California has no water "supply" problem Depletion of fixed managed storage (system yield) Due to regulatory (e.g., instream flow standards) and natural causes (e.g., climate change) Purveyors diversifying their supply portfolios Choices - are simple "Either increase supply, lower demands or, do both" Increase storage (surface and/or Aquifer Storage Recovery) Perfect existing entitlements Acquire new surface water entitlements (transfers, exchanges, assignments, new appropriations, State Filed Applications, etc.) Lower demands - water conservation Recycled water

3. California Water Balance

4. California Water Balance – Various Apportionments Urban and Agricultural Applied Water and Groundwater Notable Allocations for WY 2000 (Normal) (MAF) Urban8.9 ET of Applied Water – Urban 2.7 Conveyance Evaporation – Urban 0.435 Urban Wastewater Produced 4.1 Recycled Water 0.253 Agricultural34.2 Effective P  on Ag Lands 3.6 ET of Applied Water – Ag 21.7 Conveyance Evaporation – Ag 0.884 Recycled Water 0.028 Groundwater Withdrawals - Adjudicated Basins 0.926 Withdrawals - Unadjudicated Basins 13.9 Groundwater Net Change in Storage -4.4 Groundwater Recharge - Contract Banking 0.108 Deep Perc. of Applied Water – Ag 3.8 Deep Perc. of Applied Water – Urban 1.5 Deep Perc. of Applied Water – Wetlands 0.210 Source: Adapted from DWR Unpublished Data, Water Plan Update 2009 - Water Portfolio Eight-Year Balances, May 28, 2010, Vol.5.

5. California Storage Sensitivity

6. System Yield Diminishment

7. Water Supply Portfolios Supply Sources Current Diminishment Risks Federal/State water contracts Pre-1914 water rights State filed water rights Riparian water rights Long-term transfers Assignments Purchased surplus Groundwater Desalination water Consumptive Uses New Regulatory Controls Institutional (court orders) Natural Variability Forced Variability System Yield is being allocated without any idea of how much we have or will have – uncertainty of climate change only exacerbates this shortcoming Entitlement holders are in a dangerous game of “musical chairs”

8. Current Diminishment Risks New Instream Flow Initiatives Growth and Natural Delta Flow Criteria BDCP SWRCB Instream Flow Studies Various Biological Opinions CVP OCAP (Wanger Decisions) New CVP M&I shortage provisions Population growth Multi-user demand increases Natural variability Forced variability (popular “climate change”)

9. Current Diminishment Risks Snowpack Decline Precipitation Decline 9% per decade since 1950 Dramatic decline by end of century Removing a critical “storage” reservoir

10. Are We Seeing Hydrograph Shifts Already? 13% decrease in the April-July (Peak Melt) proportion of Water Year Runoff – 1906-2004

11. Future System Yield under Diminishment Threat Upper American River BasinBig Creek Basin

12. Future System Yield under Diminishment Threat Shifted Availability Water Supply Options “Area under the Curve” Loss of available supply (up to 66% loss in high use months) Timing skewed Alter supply availability at established PODs/PORDs Other permitted requirements still present (e.g., by-pass flows, hydropower, maintaining stream wetted perimeter) New surface entitlements Transfers/assignments Regional collaboratives Surplus capture Storage opportunities On- and off-stream (pumped storage) ASR Increased groundwater pumping In-lieu recharge Desalination Recycled water

13. Overview of California’s System Yield Threats, Challenges, and the Need to Augment and Diversify Water Portfolios A storm is coming…..Are Water Managers prepared? Current System Yield is under threat from regulatory impositions, natural reductions, and infrastructure limitations