1. 1 Jeff Skeer, Office of Policy and International Affairs U.S. Department of Energy German Marshall Fund Washington, DC, 22 February 2008 Policies for Sustainable Biofuels Development in the United States

2. Renewable Fuels Standard Enacted: Focus on 2d Generation Feedstocks Year Billions of Gallons of Fuel Per Year 20 in 10 Proposal Enacted 12/2007 (Alternative Fuels)(Biofuels Only) 2010 1012 2011 1112.6 2012 12 13.2 2013 1413.8 2014 1714.4 2015 2215 2016 2818 3 2017 3521 6 2018 24 9 20192712 20203015 20213318 20223621 Of Which Non Starch Ethanol Biofuels:

3. Comparison of Biofuel Scenarios EIA No-Policy-Change Projections History Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Corn Ethanol Cellulosic Ethanol Enacted December 2007l Biofuels Twenty in Ten Proposal Biofuels & Alternative Fuels

4. YearAdvanced Biofuel DetailsTotal Renewable Fuel Biomass- Based Diesel Cellulosic Biofuel Total Advanced Biofuel 20089.0 20090.50.611.1 20100.650.10.9512.95 20110.800.251.3513.95 20121.00.52.015.2 20131.0 2.7516.55 20141.01.753.7518.15 20151.03.05.520.5 20161.04.257.2522.25 20171.05.59.024.0 20181.07.011.026.0 20191.08.513.028.0 20201.010.515.030.0 20211.013.518.033.0 20221.016.021.036.0

5. The Standards are Nested Shown with 2022 volumes

6. Our Commitment to Sustainability DOE’s Biomass Program is committed to developing the resources, technologies, and systems needed for biofuels to grow in a way that enhances the health of our environment and protects our planet. To that end, we are working to… Develop diverse, non-food feedstocks that require little water or fertilizer Foster sustainable forestry practices to enhance forest health Selectively harvest biomass components while leaving adequate soil nutrients Assess life-cycle impacts of major scale- up in biofuels production, from feedstocks to vehicles, addressing: −land use and soil health −water use −air quality issues −impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

7. Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Associated with Different Fuels 19% Reduction 28% Reduction 52% Reduction 86% Reduction 78% Reduction Gasoline Natural Gas Biomass Current Average Cellulosic Ethanol Corn Ethanol Biomass Petroleum Sources: Wang et al, Environ. Research Letters, May 2007; Wang et al, Life-Cycle Energy Use and GHG Implications of Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Simulated with GREET Model, Dec. 2007. Sugarcane Ethanol Biomass

8. Overcoming Barriers to Commercial 2d Generation BIofuels Barriers Enzymatic conversion costs C5 sugars conversion Low Syngas-to-Fuel Yields Commercial-scale integration of process components Inadequate feedstock and distribution infrastructure Solutions R&D to improve effectiveness and reduce costs of enzymatic conversion R&D on advanced micro-organisms for fermentation of sugars R&D to improve syngas clean-up and catalyst for alcohol/fuel synthesis Fund loan guarantees, commercial biorefinery demonstrations, and 10% scale validation projects Fundamental feedstock research, enhanced feedstock demonstrations at scale, collection & storage equipment research, development and testing Future efforts address obstacles to biochemical and thermochemical routes to biofuels, support demonstrations, and resolve infrastructure issues.

9. Genetic Strategies to Boost Crop Yields Increase feedstock per unit of land by increasing growth rate and photosynthetic efficiency. Increase fuel yield per ton of feedstock through better composition and structure. Enhance disease and pest resistance. Allow germination and growth in cold weather. Use perennial, multi-year crops with efficient nutrient use and reduced fuel input. Permit dense planting and easy harvesting. Deep roots for increased carbon sequestration, drought tolerance and nutrient uptake.

10. Cellulosic Ethanol Potential and Status Cellulosic ethanol cost competitiveness and sustainability attributes are key to biofuels growth potential Historical and Projected Cellulosic Ethanol Costs Major reductions in the cost of cellulosic ethanol already achieved – much remains to be done EnzymeFeedstockConversion Future goal 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 20012002200320042005 2006 200720082009201020112012 Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (cents/gal) Cost reductions to date NREL Modeled Cost Modeled Ethanol Cost for “nth Plant”

11. DOE Leverages Partnerships to Achieve Cost Reduction Goals Commercial-Scale Biorefineries (up to $385 million)  Six cost-shared, integrated biorefinery demonstration projects to produce 130 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol in 5 years using variety of conversion technologies and cellulosic feedstocks 10%-Scale Biorefinery Validation (currently 4 projects up to $114 million)  Cost-shared, integrated biorefinery demonstrations using cellulosic feedstocks to produce renewable fuels; one-tenth of commercial scale  Four selectees announced last month for total investment of $114 million; more selectees expected by April 2008 Ethanologen Solicitation (up to $23 million)  Five selected research teams working on microorganisms Enzyme Solicitation (up to $33.8 million)  Creating highly effective, inexpensive enzyme systems for commercial biomass hydrolysis; second phase: cellulase development with cost-sharing industry partners Thermochemical Conversion (up to $7.75 million)  Integration of gasification and catalyst development Joint DOE-USDA Solicitation ($18 million)  Biomass R&D Initiative

12. Major DOE Biofuels Project Locations Geographic, Feedstock, and Technology Diversity

13. GHG Methodologies Task Force of Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP) GHG methodologies taskforce established by GBEP steering committee in May 2007. Desired end result is flexible methodology for policy makers in all countries. First taskforce meeting held October 2007. Second meeting scheduled for March 6-7 2008 and will include solid biomass and liquid biofuels.

14. GHG Taskforce Work Plan 1. Review existing methodologies; 2. Develop a harmonised approach so GHG lifecycle assessments can be compared on an equivalent basis; 3Encompass the full well-to-wheel lifecycle of transport biofuels; 4Not indicate a preference for any particular existing methodology or feedstock, or to limit parameters; and 5Define parameters and inputs to be considered when conducting a LCA and develop a good practice document.

15. Membership of GHG Taskforce Attendance at first meeting included: Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States UNEP UN Foundation International Council on Clean Transportation University of California Berkeley Iowa State University GBEP Secretariat

16. Results of First GBEP GHG Meeting Accomplished review of existing efforts in defining methodologies Reached broad agreement that it is possible to develop common methodology Developed preliminary list of parameters needed for a common methodology in a “checklist” Recognized issues needing further discussion

17. Development of Common Checklist The GHGs to be covered; The effects of direct land use change, both in terms of above and below ground carbon inventories; The effects of the production cycle, including fertilizer production, agricultural inputs and processing energy; Combustion of the finished biofuel and tailpipe emissions; and Corresponding factors to facilitate comparison with the fuel replaced.

18. Issues Needing further Discussion Accounting for co-product emissions; Ensuring transparency in default values and parameters used, and assumptions made, in conducting a GHG lifecycle assessment; Whether and how to take account of the effects of indirect land use change; How to take account of future technologies (e.g. cellulosic) in the design of the methodology.