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FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Livestock Outlook: ∆Demand - ∆Supply ≈ ∆Price Dr.

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Presentation on theme: "FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Livestock Outlook: ∆Demand - ∆Supply ≈ ∆Price Dr."— Presentation transcript:

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2 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Livestock Outlook: ∆Demand - ∆Supply ≈ ∆Price Dr. Thomas E. Elam President FarmEcon LLC March 7, 2009

3 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President 2008 OUTLOOK Bottom line: A deteriorating balance of higher costs, increasing production, and a more difficult demand growth scenario.

4 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President 2009 OUTLOOK Summary: Declining production sets the stage for higher prices, feed costs likely to be less volatile, but export and U.S. demand remain a huge question mark.

5 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Lower meat supplies chasing lower demand, costs still high and volatile Global contraction in GDP and income 2008 meat export bright spot; fading in 2009 Demand weakening Declines concentrated in HRI and exports Retail demand weakness in high end foods Farm level prices not covering higher costs Supply continues to fall until price > cost

6 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Why is macroeconomics important? Source: FarmEcon LLC; Data from World Bank WDI and FAOStat

7 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Consumers cutting back on food Source: Daily Livestock Report 3/4/09

8 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Meat exports exploded in 2008, outlook cloudy

9 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Broiler Feed Cost Variability Added $0.50/bu. for corn and $20/ton for soybean transportation and handling Based on 1.9:1 FCR, 55% corn, 35% SBM, 10% Other

10 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Estimates of 2009 production

11 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Hog Supply/Demand/Price Production slow to adjust Are our budgets realistic? Contracting having a major effect? Export demand will decline due to global recession and exchange rates Domestic demand declining based on hog prices versus per capita consumption

12 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Farrow/finish net returns/head (Iowa State model, costs as of date of feeding start)

13 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President 2009 Outlook Stated profitability improving as high cost grain moves through the budget Retail pork prices still reflecting higher hog prices Current b/e is about $56 (live) moving to about $50 by May Production decline unlikely to restore pre-2007 profitability levels this year

14 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Cattle adjustment underway On-feed number -6% Cow liquidation has started U.S./Canadian beef cows -3% Dairy cow numbers declining Adding to short run beef supply Modest 2009 beef production drop 2010 beef production down 2-3% Continued pressure on feeder prices Long term production capacity declining

15 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Iowa State yearling budget Profit/loss per head (why does anyone feed cattle?)

16 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President OK City Feeder Steer/Panhandle Steer Ratio

17 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Pricing ranges for 2009

18 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Feed Cost Outlook 2009/2010

19 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Ethanol Factoids 18% of completed ethanol capacity closed due to bankruptcy or poor margins The cost of a commercial scale cellulosic ethanol plant is $10-20/gallon capacity Burning corn to replace natural gas and using that gas to power vehicles would generate more net energy than ethanol made from corn

20 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Ethanol Plants by Status, Capacity in Million Gallons per Year http://www.ethanolproducer.com/ Total Capacity = 13,983,000,000 gpy = 5 billion bu. corn

21 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Mandated Corn-based Ethanol Production And Corn Required

22 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President

23 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Gasoline and Corn Price Link

24 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Corn priced by energy value? NOTE 2:1 Ratio RFS Demand?

25 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President What is corn worth if ethanol price = gasoline price?

26 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Ethanol production growth flattens at 2009 RFS

27 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Why the 2:1 corn/gasoline ratio? Corn’s energy value dominates corn demand as energy gets expensive Corn is the variable ethanol cost in the short run 1 bu. corn = 2.7 gal. ethanol + 17 lb. DDGS 2.7 gal. ethanol = 1.8 gal. gasoline energy* So, almost 2:1 just with gasoline value DDGS price also plays a role Corn up $1/bu. = DDGS value up 20.4 cents/bu.** *Based on same BTU content, ethanol has 66% energy of gasoline **Regression of monthly corn and DDGS prices from 1/2006 to 12/2008

28 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Why the 2:1 Ratio? Assume gasoline up by $1.00/gal. Corn energy value up by $1.80/bushel DDGS price increases, adding to corn value Adds another $0.37/bu. ($1.80 corn price increase x $0.204 value/bu.) Total corn value increase = $2.17 Not statistically different from $2.00

29 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Soyoil and Biodiesel Price Link

30 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President

31 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Corn Stocks/Price Curve Shifts Up Source: Daily Livestock Report

32 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President From Last Year - Corn Outlook – 2008/2009 Potential ethanol demand for corn About 3.6 billion bushels in CY 2008 Going to be 4+ billion in CY 2009 2008 corn acres likely to decrease Historic collision of ethanol and food is coming, and sooner rather than later Mandated use creates price insensitivity 2008/09 corn price could go to $6-8/bushel How much acreage goes to beans + weather? 2008 crop failure could take corn to over $10

33 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Corn Overview – 2009/2010 Potential ethanol demand for corn About 3.6 billion bushels in CY 2009 Going to be 4.0-4.2 billion in CY 2010 2009 corn acres about same as 2008 Mandated use creates higher and more volatile corn price 2009/10 corn price could go back to $6-8 Where oil prices go, so goes corn and all other carbohydrates

34 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Protein Meal Overview – 2009/2010 2009 soybean acres likely to increase Soybean/corn price of 2.3-2.5:1 or better normally causes a shift to soybeans If credit an issue 2009 cash costs are key Corn cash cost about $400/acre* Soybean cash cost about $225/acre* Current returns over cash costs plus risk factors slightly favor beans over corn *Iowa State projections, 12/2008, http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a1-20.html

35 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Corn/Meal Price Outlook – 2008/2009 Corn prices remain at $3.25-$4.25, meal at $250-325, through May-June Weather and acres drive prices after that 2009-2010 price outlook – some relief Biofuel production will grow due to RFS Ethanol use mandate = ethanol price mandate Volatile energy prices are critical to outlook More volatility in feed ingredients likely, but not as severe as 2008

36 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Note increases in both average price and volatility!

37 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Corn Outlook – 2007/2008* * September 1 Crop Year

38 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President

39 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Soybean Outlook – 2007/2008* * September 1 Crop Year

40 FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Questions? Comments?

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