1. Climate Change and Malaysia
Numerical Weather Prediction Division
Malaysian Meteorological Department

2. Global Warming

3. Figure 1: Global Averaged Surface Temperature
(IPCC AR4 WG1: Physical Science Basis)
Twelve of the thirteen years in the period ( ) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the observation record
Global temperatures have risen by about 0.74 ºC since the beginning of the 20th century

4. What causes weather & climate?
INSOLATION [INcoming SOLAR radiATION
Differential heating of the earth’s surface
The over-riding force that initiates global atmospheric circulation is due to the unequal amount of INcoming SOLar radiATION or "insolation" that reaches the Earth's surface.
The diagram on this slide illustrates how intercepted insolation varies across the Earth's surface, where there is a global surplus over the tropics and a global deficit over the poles.
It is important to understand how global wind and ocean circulation patterns are generated in order to understand how these circulation patterns have altered throughout time and therefore have changed global climates.

5. Natural Causes of Climate Variation

6. Milankovitch Cycles
Variation in Internal
Atmospheric Cycles (El Nino
Northern Atlantic Oscillation
Indian Ocean dipole etc)
Variation in Oceanic
Circulations
Volcanic Eruptions

7. Anthropogenic Causes of Climate Variation

8. Anthropogenic Activities
Emissions of greenhouse gases & aerosols
Change in land-use
Deforestation

10. Malaysia: Present Climate

11. WEST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUALPRECIPITATION)
LANGKAWI
PETALING JAYA
BUTTERWORTH
SUBANG

12. EAST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION)
KOTA BARU
KUANTAN
MERSING
KUALA TRENGGANU

13. EAST MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION)
KOTA KINABALU
KUCHING
SANDAKAN
MIRI

14. WEST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE)
BUTTERWORTH
KOTA BARU
PETALING JAYA
KUANTAN

15. EAST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE)
KOTA KINABALU
KUCHING
SANDAKAN
MIRI

16. 1997
1977
1982
1991
1987
1972

17. Global Climate Simulations

18. Different Emission Scenarios

19. Projected global average temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980 – 1999, as calculated by multi-model averages for a low (B1), a medium (A1B) and a high SRES scenario for the decades (left) and (right). (IPCC, 2007)

20. Annual Rainfall Changes (%): Nine GCMs Ensemble
Based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection, Temperature Increase for
Peninsular Malaysia ~ 2.8°C East Malaysia ~ 2.6 °C
Rainfall Variation (%) for Malaysia based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection

21. Regional Climate Simulations
Global Circulation Models (GCM) lack regional detail that impact assessment on climate change require.
A Regional Climate Model (RCM) adds small-scale detailed information of future climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. Coarse resolution information from a GCM is used to develop temporally and spatially fine scale information.
In the Malaysian Meteorological Department, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is being used.

22. Orographic Resolution
PRECIS resolution 0.44° x 0.44°
HadCM3 resolution 2.5° x 3.75°
PRECIS model resolution 50km
HadCM3 model resolution 2.5° x 3.75°

23. PRECIS captures important regional information on summer monsoon rainfall missing in its parent GCM simulations

24. PRECIS Simulations of Present Climate (1961-1990)
Mean Annual Cycles of SEA Rainfall and Temperature

25. MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

26. Simulation of Average Annual Surface Temperature for Malaysia
using PRECIS
5 year running averages used

27. MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

28. Simulation of Average Annual Rainfall for Malaysia using PRECIS
5 year running averages used

29. Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly Relative to 1990 - 1999
1.3 °C 1.9°C 3.1°C
1.1°C 1.7°C 2.9°C
1.5°C 2.0°C 3.2°C
1.4°C 1.9°C 3.2°C
1.2°C 2.0°C 3.4°C
1.4°C 2.0°C 3.8°C
1.2°C 1.9°C 3.0°C
1.0°C 1.7°C 2.8°C
Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly Relative to
-9.1 –
-8.9 –
–12.8 –3.6
Annual Mean Rainfall Anomaly (%) Relative to 1990 – 1999

30. Thank You