1. Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities Shenggen Fan Director General International Food Policy Research Institute University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Interdisciplinary Research Initiative in Food, Water, and Energy Resources Policy Event, Nebraska, April 13, 2011

2. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Key messages  Food security challenges remain large  A development agenda with greater support for food security is needed  The role of policy research is crucial

3. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Food security challenges remain large

4. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 The goal of halving hunger is off-track Source: Fan 2010 Number of hungry people, 1990-2015 946 584

5. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Challenges to global food security  Food price volatility  Energy/Biofuels  Population growth and demographic changes  Land and water constraints  Climate change

6. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Food price hikes and volatility Global hikes since June 2010 Maize: 90% Wheat: 82% High domestic food inflation China: 10% (Jan. 2011, y-o-y) India: 11% (Feb. 2011, y-o-y) Driven by non-staples Volatility due to Natural disasters Panic purchases Trade restrictions, etc. Source: FAO 2011

7. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 High and volatile food prices increase food insecurity Source: Headey 2011 Self-reported food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa

8. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Rapidly growing population and demographic change World population reaches 9 billion by 2050  All growth to come from urban areas  Most growth to come from developing countries Source: FAO 2009. Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food

9. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Rising energy prices influence food security  Rising energy prices cause food prices to increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010)  Rising energy prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008) Source: Data from IMF 2011

10. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Biofuel boom  Biofuel production to more than double from 2007-09 to 2019 (OECD-FAO 2010)  Biofuel demand to grow four-fold between 2008 and 2035 (IEA 2010)  Biofuels support to rise 2009: $20 bn From 2010 to 2020: $45 bn From 2011 to 2035: $65 bn World ethanol and biodiesel production Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011

11. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Food-fuel competition (e.g. U.S. maize) Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011Source: Data from USDA 2011; Headey 2011

12. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Biofuels will impact food security (2020, compared to baseline) Source: Rosegrant et al. 2008 Changes in number of malnourished children (‘000s)Changes in calorie availability (%) Price changes (%)

13. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Growing land constraints Source: Ahamed et al 2006 Global extent of soils with low nutrient capital reserves Arable land per capita (ha in use per person) Source: Bruinsma 2009

14. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Severe water constraints Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011 With “business as usual,” high water stress by 2050 puts at risk: →52% of global population →49% of global grain production →45% of global GDP

15. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Climate change will push up food prices World food price increases under various scenarios, 2010–2050 (% change from 2010) Source: Nelson et al. 2010

16. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 A development agenda with greater support for food security is needed

17. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Address food price volatility  Promote effective policies and technology investments to minimize food-fuel competition  Support transparent, fair, and open global trade to enhance efficiency of global agricultural markets  Create global, physical, shared grain reserve to address food price crises  Establish an international working group to monitor world food situation and catalyze action

18. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Invest in agriculture and smallholder productivity Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database Improve access to quality seeds, fertilizer, financial and extension services, crop insurance, new technologies, rural infrastructure

19. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Promote safety nets that increase productive capacity Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)  Improved daily/capita caloric acquisition in last 7 days by 10%  Enhanced food security in 2004-06 by 0.36 months  Rise in credit use by 12% points  Increased use of fertilizer by 11% points  Increased use of improved seeds by 5% points Source: Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009

20. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Promote land productivity improvements  Create awareness of sustainable land management (SLM) practices  Provide technical support for often knowledge-intensive SLM practices  Support generation of innovative SLM practices (e.g. fertilizer micro dosing and packaging, biomass transfer, manure management)  Invest in water storage or distribution to improve irrigation efficiency  Increase finance of irrigation investments, esp. for small farmers Source: Nkonya et al. 2011, forthcoming

21. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Sustainable land management (SLM) practices have win–win outcomes  SLM practices: (evidence from Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda) control soil erosion increase soil carbon stock increase crop yields reduce climate-induced production risks enhance agricultural productivity and incomes  Examples of SLM practices: irrigation, agroforestry, fertilizers, mulching, crop residues, improved fallow, compost Source: Kato et al. 2010; Nkonya et al. 2011, forthcoming

22. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Promote water productivity improvements  Higher levels of water reuse by all users of water  Improvements and evolution of water technology  Water and wastewater infrastructure improvements  Extension of services to rural and urban poor populations  Greater energy efficiency with increased use of renewable energy Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011

23. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Sustainable water management has high pay-offs Compared to “business as usual,” it can de-risk: >1 bn people ~$17 trillion of GDP >20% of children likely to suffer from malnutrition (with higher investments in rural water supply and sanitation and female secondary education) Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011

24. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation esp. through agriculture Adaptation: e.g. improved land management adjustment of planting dates introduction of new crop varieties Mitigation: e.g. improved energy efficiency and crop yields land management techniques to increase carbon storage Source: IPCC 2007; Nelson et al. 2009 At least additional US$7 billion agricultural productivity investments are needed annually to offset adverse effects on human well-being

25. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 The role of policy research is crucial

26. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Changing global policy landscape  Emerging issues and new actors High and volatile prices, increasing natural resource stresses, climate change, demographic shifts etc. Emerging economies, private sector, philanthropic organizations etc.  Emphasis on country-driven and -owned development strategies Increased demand for policy research

27. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Role of policy research  Policy research evolves beyond technology e.g. to macroeconomics, trade, energy, and social protection  Contribution of policy research to poverty and hunger reduction Direct: Increases investment in food security, agriculture, and rural development and improves resource allocation Indirect: Creates enabling environment for agricultural technology innovation and adoption in developing countries

28. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Impacts of policy research Vietnam rice marketing and policy research Influenced timing of changes in rice policies Generated benefits worth US$45-91 million Bangladesh food-for-education program research Improved targeting and strengthened capacity Generated benefits of about US$248 million Evaluation of Mexico’s PROGRESA Guided program investments and implementation Public investment research Contributed to public investment strategies in many Asian and African countries

29. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Sector GhanaUgandaTanzaniaEthiopiaChinaIndiaThailand Returns to agriculture or rural income (local currency/local currency spending) Agriculture16.812.412.50.146.813.512.6 Education-0.27.29.00.562.21.42.1 Health1.30.9n.e.-0.03n.e.0.8n.e. Roads8.82.79.14.221.75.30.9 Ranking in returns to poverty reduction Agriculturen.e.12 221 Educationn.e.31 133 Healthn.e.4 4 Roadsn.e.23 312 Policy research insights for resource allocation Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009 Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated

30. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Examples of policy research needs (1)  Assessing the impacts of high and volatile food prices on poor people (use of household surveys)  Identifying strategic investments in pro-poor agricultural technology development and adoption  Understanding the impacts of biofuels and climate change on agriculture and food security  Identifying more effective strategies to promote sustainable land management for poverty reduction

31. Shenggen Fan, April 2011 Examples of policy research needs (2)  Understanding the impacts of global change drivers on current and future availability and accessibility of water resources  Identifying research-based options to address growing water scarcity and water quality challenges  Identifying strategies to build the capacity of small farmers and the rural poor to adapt to climate change  Understanding the linkages between climate change and gender