1. Planning Australia’s major cities: Dorte Ekelund Executive Director Major Cities Unit Presentation to the NATSTATS 2010 Conference, Sydney 16 September 2010 Creating an evidence base

2.  Federal Government involvement in cities - State of Australian Cities 2010 - National urban policy  What do we need to know? - Defining urban - Indicators for effective urban policy and planning  What are we measuring? - Reliability and consistency - Causal versus correlated data Outline

3. Transforming our Cities Transforming our Cities  1950s - Housing  1970s - Services  1990s - Regeneration  2007 + - Infrastructure Australia - Major Cities Unit - COAG Reform Pyrmont Bridge 2006

4.  A national objective for cities that they are: - Globally competitive - Productive - Sustainable - Liveable - Socially inclusive  National criteria for strategic planning systems - State governments to meet criteria by 2012 - Linked to federal infrastructure funding National planning criteria for cities

5. Developing national urban policy Phase 1 Gather the evidence State of Australian Cities 2010 Phase 2 Prepare options A strategy for Australian Cities

6.  A national snapshot of Australia’s cities  An evidence base to: - generate debate - present challenges - highlight trends - measure progress - develop policy http://www/infrastructure.gov.au/mcu State of Australian Cities 2010

7. Defining ‘urban’ - What is a city?

8. Australia: an ‘urban’ nation  75 % population live in 17 major cities over 100,000  82% in cities over 30,000

9. Where are city boundaries?  Spatial aggregation - Statistical v Local Government v Metropolitan v Conurbation - Cities within cities - Expanding urban boundaries - Peri-urban areas  Policy implications - Tracking change over time - Scale - Density - ‘Per capita’ indicators

10.  Themes - Productivity - Sustainability - Liveability  What do we need to know? - Where are we now? - Where are we going?  What are we measuring? - Gaps - Overlaps - Interrelationships - Causes or correlations - Interpreting the data City indicators

11. Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Hobart Darwin Canberra 2056 2026 2006 2026 2006 2026 2006 2026 2006 2026 2006 Population growth Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2009) Population Projections 2006-2100. ABS cat 3220.0

12. Population projections  Multiple projections - ABS v Treasury IGR 3 v States v Agencies (eg. Health)  Policy sensitive projections - Components of growth - Projected v Planned v Targets - eg. Fertility v Immigration v Labour force  Spatial projections - Combining location and nature of growth What are we measuring?

13. Economic importance of cities  76% of employment  80% of economic activity (GDP)  84% of economic growth (2003-2008)  Gateways to the global economyProductivity

14.  Isolating factors in the city system - Eg. Urban congestion  Dangers of extrapolating state data to cities - Eg. Queensland  Identifying contribution of cities to regional economic activity  Eg. mining and agriculture (research, distribution, administration, finance) What are we measuring? Perth Brisbane Sydney Melbourne Adelaide 0 60 100 GDP per Capita ($US ‘000) SOAC 2010 p. 18 Contribution of cities to productivity

15. Total Greenhouse Contribution of Australian Transport Note: total warming effects - includes both directly radiative gases and indirectly radiative gases. Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2009), BITRE estimates Base case projections Emissions for international transport, to and from Australia, are estimated using half of total fuel use.Sustainability

16. Recent trends in car use Recent trends in car use What are we measuring? Source: Stanley, J. 2010 Moving People  Measures of progress

17. Houses are getting bigger... but households are getting smaller! Source: BITRE analysis of ABS 2007 Cat. No. 4130.0.55.001Liveability Housing diversity Housing diversity

18. What are we measuring? Community wellbeing indicators  Need for indicators  Accessibility  Natural landscapes  Quality open space  Safety  Legibility  What’s important to whom?  Real  Perceived  Quality  Quantity

19. Indices  City indices  Issue- specific indices  SEIFA  VAMPIRE  Social inclusion  Resources + Participation - Choice - Opportunity - Capability Interpreting the data Brisbane 2006 Dodson and Sipe (2008) Unsettling the suburbs. Urban Research Program, Griffith University

20. Conclusion  Limitations - Data gaps - especially about the contribution of cities to productivity, sustainability, liveability - Lack of comparability - Different scales - Different methodologies - Different purposes

21. Conclusion  Need a suite of indicators - Consistent geographies - Consistent time series data - More open data sources - Measures of progress not just of problems - Separating causes from correlations - Better appreciation of interrelationships between built environment and economic, social and environmental outcomes - Considering alternative futures

22. “If you think you know all about a city, it’s probably just a town.” Peter Carey, 30 Days in Sydney. Pyrmont Bridge c1900 Complex systems

23. Thank you Pyrmont Bridge 2006 Dynamic systems