1. The TerraWatt Scale Can Renewables Compete?

2. Two Main Challenges Electricity Production:  per capita consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency and global demand is rising rapidly on the terawatt scale Electricity Distribution:  Aging grid already at capacity; can not easily handle new capacity additions are a large distributed generation system based on renewables

3. A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000) Industrial Output: 40 Marine Fish Catch: 35 CO 2 Emissions: 17 Total Energy Use: 16 Coal Production: 7 World Population: 4 No More Fish by 2100 at this rate of Consumption From 1950-2000 electricity generation scaled as (Population growth) 3.5

4. Waveforms of Growth

5. Implications This Century can not scale in terms of material consumption the way that the last century did  BAU can’t be supported We are starting to run out of raw materials needed for basic infrastructure We are definitely running out of rare materials needed for some advanced technologies

6. Energy Literacy 101 Numbers 100 Million 1 Billion 1 Trillion Number of Households capable of buying, storing and generating electricity Dollars per day we spend on gasoline Continuous generated power by 3300 power plants; 10% (100,000 MW) of which is lost in transmission

7. Business As Usual Scenario Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion by the year 2100 Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years 40 TWyr is compromise between current 15 TWyr and scaled (ridiculous) 235 TWyr

8. Ultimately Recoverable Resource Conventional Oil/Gas Unconventional Oil Coal Methane Clathrates Oil Shale Uranium Ore Geothermal Steam - conventional 1000 TWy (1/4 need) 2000 5000 20,000 30,000 2,000 4,000

9. Other Possibilities Hot Dry Rock Sunlight/OTEC Wind Energy Gulf Stream Global Biomass 1,000,000 9,000,000 200,000 140,000 10,000 In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient  but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?

10. Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material Use 20 KW power buoy 5 MW Wind Turbine LNG closed cycle Wind Farm PV Farm Stirling Farm Pelamis Farm 850 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW 1500 MW sq km 600 MW sq km 50 MW sq km 40 MW sq km 30 MW sq km

11. The Current US Situation Electricity power is at.97 TW (2007) Approximately 450,000 MW (0.45 TW) is provided by Coal Annual Coal emissions for electricity generation are almost exactly equal to total annual emissions from gasoline powered vehicles National Goal  replace 450,000 MW of coal fired electricity

12. But replace with what Beware the nuclear comeback  would require building 450 new nuclear power plants (currently 109 exist) LNG  this is our current path About 95% of new generating capacity added over the last 10 years is NG fired electricity LNG path is fraught with political peril; Russia and Iran have more than 50% remaining supply

13. Large Scale Renewables CSP  40 MW per square km  100 x 100 km section of central Nevada  400,000 MW (about equal to current Coal)  but only for about 6-8 hrs per day Great Plains Wind Project  1 10 MW Turbine per 10 square km  450,000 MW (but at about 50% wind reliability)

14. More Possibilities Off shore wind/wave energy devices  make hydrogen (electricity carrier) and fresh water Aleutian Island corridor  about 200,000 MW available there 1000 km Gulf Current Turbine corridor  1 TW available Regionally: Multi-element Tidal fence topped with Wind Turbines across the straits of Juan de Fuca  50,000 MW.

15. US Wind Energy Generation Good Trajectory but still only 2.4% of US Nameplate Capacity

16. 2003 1.8 MW 350’ 2000 850 kW 265’ 2006 5 MW 600’ Recent Capacity Enhancements

17. But main growth is wind

20. Vestas Exa ple 3600 turbine blades per year Requires 2500 workers Requires 2 x 400,000 square feet facilities. 1200 2.5 MW wind Turbines per year 3000 MW per year  150 years to replace 450,000 MW of Coal Off shore blade problem

21. 63 M blades 138 M high tower (tower to blade is usually 2:1) Clipper systems plan 7.5 MW using 90 meter blades (off shore)

24. 200 MW in 2007 to 1840 MW in 2012 Total installed is 636 I 2007 and 5180 in 2012