1. Anthropogenic Climate Change in the World Climate Research Programme 2007 A. Henderson-Sellers Director, World Climate Research Programme

2. 2 WCRP Priorities Integration across WCRP (Anthropogenic Climate Change, Atmos. Chemistry & Climate, Tropical Convection & Monsoons, Decadal Prediction, Extremes, IPY, Sea level rise) Next generation weather and climate models (Towards seamless prediction, computing resources) Value delivery for users & sponsors eg NMHSs Strategic partnering: WMO/WCP, THORPEX, GEO, IGBP, ESSP and stakeholders (e.g. CGIAR challenge) New resources invested in Top priorities e.g.

3. 3 WCRP ACC Achievements IPCC AR4 CMIP3 archive: > 1000 users, 200 pubs –WCRP is mainstay of WG1 (science) plus input WG2 & 3 –ESSP-WCRP Side Event at SBSTA-26, May 2007

4. 4 World Climate Research Programme Objectives ♦ To determine the predictability of climate ♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate To facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth system variability & change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit & value to society

5. 5 WCRP’s ACC Future Activities UNFCCC’s SBSTA input requested –23 July: open to all research organisations for COP-13 in Bali –21 September: 2 papers & action ‘bid’ on Nairobi Adaptation Plan GCOS observation & analysis; WCRP models, regions & downscaling WCRP has team meeting 10 July Perugia during IUGG IPCC AR5 planning input requested –Scenarios,18-20 Sept, Noordwijkerhout, Netherlands; Aspen Statemt GCOS-WCRP-IGBP “Learning from AR4” Sydney –October 4-6 2007; invites and survey out (please complete this!) ICTP-WCRP CMIP3/AR4 training 26-30 Nov; Trieste WCRP ACC-related plans for 2008 – Modelling Summit ~May; EMCWF –Sea-level Rise II W’shop ~June; IOC

6. 6 ACC with IGBP and ESSP IGBP (physical scientists working with others) –societal needs, for example in the area of climate research as articulated at the recent WMO Conference in Madrid and delivered by national meteorological services, it is coming to be increasingly demanding of a greater breadth of climate information and climate science prompting co-operation such as in the joint IGAC-SPARC Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate (AC&C) ESSP (climate scientists with outside partners) –pressing needs for food security in a warming world prompted CGIAR & ESSP to develop a Challenge Programme on climate change and agriculture