1. Context

2. Energy Future: Context Fossil fuel is plentiful (and inexpensive) –Oil supply is in 10s of years (Lewis*: 40-80) –Gas supply is over 100 years (Lewis: 200-500) –Coal supply is several 100 years (Lewis: 200– 2000) 85% of the world’s energy is supplied by fossil fuel No new nuclear energy generation capacity has been added in decades Renewable energy sources contribute an extremely small portion of the overall world requirement Economic development has been and continues to be dependent on “cheap energy” *Nathan Lewis reference is cited frequently.

3. More Facts 20% of U.S. Oil comes from the Persian Gulf –40% comes from OPEC nations; –70% of U.S. oil from outside the U.S. –U.S. consumes 26 % of the world’s total petroleum China is next with 10% Russia uses 7% Oil prices: –Peak at $59.41 in 1980 (in 1996 dollars) –2001 price: $22 –Retail energy price of gasoline in Japan ($3.40) and Germany ($3.35). Per capita consumption of energy: –U. S. 342 BTU; Germany/Japan 170; China 30 Source: EIA

4. Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998 Gas Hydro Renew World Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads) (10% Electricity) (15% Electricity) Source: Nathan Lewis.

5. Energy Reserves Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr)Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr) Oil 40-78 51-151 Gas 68-176207-590 Coal 2242160 Rsv=Reserves Res=Resources Source: Nathan Lewis.

6. Oil Has No Dominant Producer Source: EIA

7. Gas Reserves 1.6 - 5 Trillion Barrels Of Oil Equivalent (60 – 180 year supply*) *These reserve numbers come from the Discover Magazine article, cited earlier

8. Where Does Energy Go? UseAmount (Quads) Waste (Heat) Transport22.29.8 Industry19.4 Electricity (Generati on) 29.23.0 Buildings (Heat) 10.63.0

9. (in the U.S. in 1997, cents per kWh) coalnucleargasoilwindsolar 2.1 ¢2.3 ¢ 3.6 ¢ 3.9 ¢ 5.5 ¢ 22 ¢ Nuclear Energy Institute, American Wind Energy Association, American Solar Energy Society Production Cost of Electricity Source: Nathan Lewis.

10. Cost of new technologies have declined steeply, Solar Wind Biomass Natural gas Combined Cycle Advanced Coal Production costs (EURO1990/kWh) 0.01 0.1 1 10 Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) 100100001000000 Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source: IEA

11. Population Growth to 10 - 11 Billion People in 2050 Per Capita GDP Growth at 1.6% yr -1 Energy consumption per Unit of GDP declines at 1.0% yr -1 Source: Nathan Lewis

12. 1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW Total Primary Power vs Year Prediction Source: Nathan Lewis