1. Taiwan Power System In Cost-Benefit Analysis Wu-Ching Hsu Pei-Shan Lee 11/25/02

2. Abstract Introduction Demand and Supply Subject Analysis and Comparison Conclusion Summary

3. Introduction Taiwan Power Structure Taiwan Power System (Taiwan Power Company) Produce (84.8%) Hydro (13.7%) Thermal (55.4%) Oil (13.9%) Coal (25.4%) Natural Gas (16.1%) Nuclear (16.1%) Purchase (15.2%) Entrusted Hydro Industry (0.8%) Local Industry (14.4%) Coal (9.7%) Natural Gas (4.7%) Output (customers)

4. Power system Hydro Generation (4.4%) Thermal Generation (68.7%) Nuclear Generation (26.9%)

5. Demand and Supply Item19971998199920002001....... 20262027 The average increasing rate in 5 years Energy Output (100GWH) (Supply) 13221430145815651581 …... 52285484 4.9% Sales (100GWH) (Demand) 11831281131714241436 …... 52225499 5.3% Customer (Thousand) 982110101103701058610746 2.5% Estimate the demand and supply at the average increasing rate.

6. Demand > Supply Based on the future demand, we need to increase the installed capacity to satisfy the demand. In 2027, the power will shorten without new sources.

7. Solution Look for the new resources of the power –Build a new power generation The Nuclear generation The Hydro generation The Thermal generation (depend on the rain) –Increase the production Switch the old equipments Energy Saving –Increase the cost (low the demand) –The usage limit –Government soft advice

8. Fact The government decided to build the new power generation to soften the problem of power supply. Which type of power generation should be built?

9. Subject Generation typeSourceAdvice HydroRainUnstableX ThermalOil, Coal, GasStableO Nuclear StableO We will discuss the benefit and the abuse to compare Thermal generation (Coal) and Nuclear generation.

10. Analysis and Comparison Nuclear GenerationThermal Generation (Coal) BudgetHighLow Life (years)15.6Long Manufacturing expense 4849M1212M Power (MW)27004200 System Control (Turn on or off) Hard to control (Get trouble easily) at any time (Depend on the condition) Material cost in total cost 60%~80%20%~30%

11. Analysis Approach: –1. the same scale (the same power produced) –2. the same use life –3. NPV Other considerations: –1. Benefit –2. Abuse –3. ………..

12. What we need to pay? The construction cost The material cost The management fee The maintenance cost The handling fee at the useless equipments The pollution cost

13. Pollution Thermal A thermal power-station (50mw) can produce: 10,000 Mton SO2 10,200 Mton NOx 37,000,000 CO2 125,000 Mton dust 93,000 Mton mud Nuclear Nuclear waste Radioactive rays Heat pollution

14. Sustainable Use (Life time) Nuclear: 15.6 years (the average years of the US nuclear stations). We can’t reuse the stations and equipment after life time. Thermal: They can renovate the equipment after it got outdated

15. Advantages Nuclear The volume of materials(uranium) is small. There are few CO 2 emission Power efficiency is higher Thermal The cost is cheap Life time is long (renovate equipment)

16. Compare with Other Countries Sweden plans to close all the nuclear generations before 2010. USA canceled 117 new nuclear generation plans after the accidents in Three Mile Island in 1979(PA). Russia closed 60 generations after Chernobyl accident. Many countries, Australia ………., declared as the no-nuclear countries.

17. Conclusion The risk about the security of nuclear is great. No country can find an appropriate way to deal nuclear waste So we suggest to build the Thermal station

18. Summary Introduction Demand>Supply Analysis and Comparison –Thermal generation (Coal) –Nuclear generation Conclusion

19. Wu-Ching Hsu Pei-Shan Lee Presentation

20. Questions?