1. WA State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303) CIG Fall Forecasting Meeting October 2, 2007 Marketa McGuire Elsner

2. Outline Background of HB 1303 WA State Climate Impacts Assessment (Integrated Assessment) –Sector Objectives –Products HB 1303 in the Context of the Governor’s Climate Change Initiative

3. HB 1303 Background Passed in Spring 2007 Supports emissions reduction and use of alternative fuels via changes in the Revised Code of Washington (RCW) and various funding programs Calls for CTED and Ecology work with Climate Impacts Group to evaluate impacts of climate change on Washington State –Develop comprehensive assessment that includes impacts of global warming on public health, agriculture, the coastline, forestry, infrastructure, and water supply and management

4. Conceptual Approach to Assessment Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts: The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socioeconomic systems affect each other Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.

6. State Climate Impacts Assessment –Sector Objectives Climate Scenarios Hydrology and Water Resources Agriculture -New Salmon Forests Coasts Human Health -New Infrastructure -New Adaptation

7. Products of HB 1303 A report describing how climate change is projected to affect the people and resources of Washington state over the next 100 years, with focus on the next 50 –Will be based on the 2007 global climate change scenarios released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Will indicate how impacts vary by region across the state and indicate locations of high and low sensitivity to climate change –Will characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) and prioritize areas for future action.

8. Products of HB 1303 A web portal providing free access to data and maps indicating projected changes in: –Temperature –Precipitation –Sea level rise –Snowpack –Streamflow –Agricultural productivity –Public health risk –Salmon risk –Forest risk –Coastal vulnerability

12. Related Studies Interim Results and Progress Report Dec 2007 Final ReportDec 2008 HB 1303 State Climate Impacts Assessment Governor’s EO Washington State Climate Change Challenge (PAWGs) Preliminary Recommendations Dec 2007 Final ReportFeb 2008 Evaluation of impacts to 2100 –Focus on the next 50 years –Indicate how impacts vary by region across the state –Indicate locations of high and low sensitivity to climate change –Characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) and prioritize areas for future action Examination of the impacts of climate change and recommendations of specific steps the State of Washington should take to prepare for its impacts. Charge: –Identify vulnerabilities –Identify potential adaptation approaches –Prioritize near-term approaches –Identify research needs

13. Thank you