1. Alternatives to Gasoline Possibilities and Capacities

2. The Scale of the Problem is Large 400 million gallons of gasoline per day $1 Billion dollars per day (mostly to foreign economies) Total vehicle miles driven per year increases 2-3% each year Average fuel economy remains at 20-25 mpg. Typical American uses 500-600 gallons per year at a cost of 1000-2000 $ The China Lever Arm is important

3. Energy Gains (net = 1.4)

4. 50% increase in efficiency since 1990 maps into positive energy gain

5. Total Possible Yield 10 kg of corn = 1 gallon of ethanol10 kg of corn = 1 gallon of ethanol 1 ideal acre of corn = 850 gallons  but we need 150 billion gallons annually1 ideal acre of corn = 850 gallons  but we need 150 billion gallons annually 1 practical acre = 50% of an ideal acre1 practical acre = 50% of an ideal acre Required acreage is 350 million acres of crop landRequired acreage is 350 million acres of crop land Is 350 million acres a lot?Is 350 million acres a lot?

6. Acreage 1997  2002  2007: 445  434  406 million acres of cropland. 350/406=86% of all cropland for corn grain based ethanol  not scalable!1997  2002  2007: 445  434  406 million acres of cropland. 350/406=86% of all cropland for corn grain based ethanol  not scalable! Note in 2007 there are 408 million acres of pasture land; some of that can be used for farmingNote in 2007 there are 408 million acres of pasture land; some of that can be used for farming The size of Oregon is 60 million acresThe size of Oregon is 60 million acres

7. Use Another Feed Stock What about Cellulosic Ethanol: Cellulosic ethanol can be produced from a wide variety of cellulosic biomass feedstocks including agricultural plant wastes (corn stover, cereal straws, sugarcane bagasse), plant wastes from industrial processes (sawdust, paper pulp) and energy crops grown specifically for fuel production, such as switchgrass.What about Cellulosic Ethanol: Cellulosic ethanol can be produced from a wide variety of cellulosic biomass feedstocks including agricultural plant wastes (corn stover, cereal straws, sugarcane bagasse), plant wastes from industrial processes (sawdust, paper pulp) and energy crops grown specifically for fuel production, such as switchgrass.

8. 100 Billion Gallons by 2050; Bullshit or Not? Current switch grass yields are five dry tons per acre.Current switch grass yields are five dry tons per acre. Some research test plots are yielding 15 tons per acre which in turn produces 1200 gallons of ethanol.Some research test plots are yielding 15 tons per acre which in turn produces 1200 gallons of ethanol. 83 Million acres is then needed to produce the equivalent of 100 billion gallons of gasoline83 Million acres is then needed to produce the equivalent of 100 billion gallons of gasoline Currently 70 million acres of cropland are devoted to growing soybeans for animal feed; switch grass has more animal protein per acre.Currently 70 million acres of cropland are devoted to growing soybeans for animal feed; switch grass has more animal protein per acre.

9. Requirements/Expectations Production costs per gallon for cellusoic ethanol: Production costs per gallon for cellusoic ethanol: 2006 = $2.20 2006 = $2.20 2010 = $2.35 2010 = $2.35 2012 goal = $1.50 2012 goal = $1.50 1 barrel of crude oil = 42 gallons; At $100 per barrel production costs are 100/42 = $2.35 per gallon of gas. 1 barrel of crude oil = 42 gallons; At $100 per barrel production costs are 100/42 = $2.35 per gallon of gas. If fuel economy doubles by 2030 and if we devote 10% of available crop land (e.g. 40 million acres)to grow fuel on then 2/3 of our fuel requirements will be met with cellusoic ethanol  This is Feasible if we start investing now. This is a scalable solution! If fuel economy doubles by 2030 and if we devote 10% of available crop land (e.g. 40 million acres)to grow fuel on then 2/3 of our fuel requirements will be met with cellusoic ethanol  This is Feasible if we start investing now. This is a scalable solution! Potential large creation of jobs to support this effort Potential large creation of jobs to support this effort