2. Climate Change - the science, the policy and the ethics A presentation by Fiona Hewer MSc FRMetS for Henley College 13 February 2008 Fiona’s Red Kite interpreting weather and climate for your needs

3. Temperature evidence Fiona’s Red Kite current warming trend “unequivocal” (~0.74ºC /100yr) global average sea-level rise (~2mm/yr) glaciers and snow cover are declining; loss of Arctic sea ice

4. IPCC Synthesis Report Fiona’s Red Kite Most of the observed increase in globally- averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global averaged air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

5. Consequences of global temperature rises Fiona’s Red Kite at 0-1ºC above 1980-1999s hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress at 1ºC up to 30% species at increased extinction risk at 2ºC there will be further increases in deaths from drought, flood and heat wave at 3ºC about 30% of global coastal wetland will be lost at 4ºC significant extinctions around the globe at 5ºC millions in coastal flooding The highest projections for the 2090’s are 6.4ºC

6. What warms and cools the climate of your town Fiona’s Red Kite the Gulf stream land use - dark coloured surface absorb more of the sun’s heat green house gases aerosols - particles in the atmosphere land use - light coloured surfaced reflect the sun’s heat the natural cycle of ice-ages

7. International agreements and UK targets Fiona’s Red Kite Name reduce inrel. toby UK ‘9720%CO 2 19902010 UK Kyoto12.5%ghg19902008-12 EU15 Kyoto8.0%ghg1990 (1995) 2012 CC Bill26-32%CO 2 19902020 CC Bill60%CO 2 19902050 Bali footnote25-40%2020

8. Climate change - the ethics Fiona’s Red Kite Which solutions are moral? How can we ensure the policies we implement are just? I’m not going try and tell you what you should think, but I will discuss some tools and ideas to help you explore your own views For whom do we want be just? Who is our moral community? membership of the moral community gives us rights and responsibilities

9. Climate change - the ethics Fiona’s Red Kite nature provides resources for humans such as fuel, building materials and food our unique powers of intelligence allow us to study and understand nature we can predict and manage nature we’re confident that new technical solutions can be found humans are part of nature - if we damage it we damage ourselves nature is a complicated, interconnected system we cannot fully understand humans should respect nature, not try to control it it’s best to follow a precautionary approach, and not do new things unless we’re sure about the impacts Technocentrism versus Ecocentrism