1. BA212: Class 2 An Overview of the Natural Gas and Electricity Industries

2. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 1 2004 US CO 2 Emissions by Sector Source: EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo06/emission.html

3. The Natural Gas Industry Untying the Regulatory Knot

4. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 3 Gas: The “clean” fossil fuel

5. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 4 The Natural Gas Industry: traditional structure Production –Discovery, extraction, gathering, processing Transmission –pipelines (inter-state and intra-state) –Growing role of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Distribution (LDCs) –From the pipeline to the end-user Characterized by functional separation and multi-layered regulation

6. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 5 Natural Gas Usage (2005)

7. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 6 Natural Monopoly and Regulation Distribution (and retail sales) –regulated by states –usually ‘cost of service’ regulation Interstate Pipelines (‘sales for resale’) –regulated by the federal government (FPC and then FERC) since 1938. Production (‘first sales’) –transactions with inter-state pipelines increasingly regulated by FPC from 1938 to 1978. Rapidly deregulated after 1978 –transactions with intra-state pipelines and LDCs sometimes regulated by States.

8. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 7 Unnatural Movements of Natural Gas Prices

9. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 8 The Unraveling of Regulation Supply Shortages (NGPA 1978) Common Carriage (FERC 436 and 636) What else did pipelines do? –‘marketing’ (sales and re-sales) –storage –risk management Competitive marketing = competitive commodity market –no need to regulate commodity prices! Regulation of distribution is a mixed bag –Retail choice in some states –Core/non-core –Hedging concerns

10. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 9 Transition pains

11. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 10 US Natural Gas Production

12. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 11 The Future of Natural Gas Still an attractive alternative to coal from an environmental perspective Historically different from oil in important ways –Continental markets served by pipelines North American market fairly independent of other regions –Fragmented production - almost no producer market power –Competition issues focused on transportation/pipelines With Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) the market is becoming global –Lots of producer market power in the rest of the world

13. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 12 Unnatural Movements of Natural Gas Prices

14. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 13 Natural Gas Production

15. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 14 Natural Gas Reserves

16. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 15 World Natural Gas Trade

17. The Electricity Industry

18. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 17 The Electricity Industry: Traditional Structure Production –Generation – the process of converting, rather than extracting, inputs. Transmission –High voltage wires. Distribution –From high voltage to your living room. Retailing –Billing & customer service. The industry has predominantly been vertically integrated across all four sectors.

19. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 18 Key Economic Characteristics of the Industry (1) Costs vary by resource. Total Cost Q Gas (CT) Coal Nuclear

20. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 19 Key Economic Characteristics of the Industry (2) Electricity, for the most part, cannot be stored. End-use demand is very inelastic.

21. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 20 Key Economic Characteristics of the Industry (3) Physical characteristics of the transmission grid create externalities across grid “users.” –The transmission grid has limited capacity, especially at times of peak demand. –For example, when transmission capacity is limited, not all the generators on the Delta can supply power to San Francisco. –The more one plant on the Delta produces, the less other plants can.

22. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 21 Vertical Integration and Regulation Originally, producers needed to distribute to get their product sold –Production and distribution linked from the beginning. Coordination issues across sectors (e.g. externalities on the transmission grid) made vertical integration attractive. Economies of scale –Prevalent in every sector early on. –Still present on the “wires” side (transmission & distribution). With vertical integration, if one sector is a natural monopoly, the whole industry must be regulated.

23. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 22 Market Organization Outside US –Nationalized, vertically integrated electric company United States (pre-1998) –Investor owned electric company –Vertically integrated –Regulated by state utility commissions –Geographically small (Balkanized network) The Exceptions (US) –Federal power: the ultimate exercise in economies of scale –Municipal utilities: going it ‘alone’ –Wholesale power markets

24. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 23 What happened? The golden years (1930-1970) –Economies of scale keep driving costs down as demand keeps growing. Everything goes wrong (the 70’s) –fuel price shocks: demand stops growing –nuclear power and regulatory risk Steps towards deregulation (part II, the 80’s) –the 70’s continued –PURPA –renewable generation –‘least-cost’ planning

25. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 24 Average Retail Price of Electricity, 1960-2005 Source: EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec8_38.pdf.

26. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 25 Different approaches give different results

27. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 26 2003 Average Residential Prices

28. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 27 Electricity Prices around the World ResidentialIndustrial USA9.05.3 France14.15.0 Germany17.66.5 United Kingdom13.86.7 Japan19.612.7 Canada6.24.9 Australia6.23.6 Norway6.94.3 Russia N/A2.9 Italy19.116.2 Switzerland14.38.5 Average Price of Electricity (2003/04 US cents/ kWh)

29. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 28 Where are we now? International wave of privatization –No consensus on new model US Energy Policy Act of 1992 –toward unregulated generation sales –‘unbundling’ of transmission –what was in the bundle? “Radical” restructuring –beyond unbundling to ‘separation’ –the ‘Independent System Operator’ (ISO) –California, PJM, New England, New York, Texas –Chile, UK, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, Netherlands

30. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 29 Electricity and the Environment In the US in 2004, the electricity industry accounted for: –39% of CO 2 emissions –69% of SO 2 emissions –22% of NO x emissions The industry is also a major water user.

31. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 30 Location & Size of US Power Plants, 2004 Source: NRDC, http://www.nrdc.org/air/pollution/benchmarking/2004/benchmark2004.pdf.

32. Professors Borenstein & BushnellBA212 - Spring 2008 Page 31 Carbon Emissions at US Power Plants, 2002