1. Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of drought 3.Global Warming 4.Impact of Agriculture on Climate

2. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A natural mode of tropical atmosphere/ocean variability Warm events return every 2-7 years, and tend to peak in NH winter

3. Precipitation Anomalies El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO is a natural pattern of climate variability that is due to tight coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. Small changes in the distribution of sea surface temperature are coordinated with changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns; The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics force atmospheric circulation changes that affect climate world-wide. Temperature Anomalies

4. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ DJF ENSO Impacts

5. ENSO is Predictable ENSO is a true mode of the coupled atmosphere/ocean system (eg, patterns of oscillation in a guitar string) The long period (3-4 years) of the ENSO mode allows for skillful seasonal climate forecasts (2-4 seasons in advance) Presently, empirically based forecast models are at least as skillful as the numerical climate models.

6. Examples of applications of seasonal forecast (based on ENSO forecasts) Yaqui Valley, Mexico –Winter precipitation and reservoir inflow; in-field precipitation; health of grazing lands Indonesia –Rice yields Hurricane forecasts –frequency and intensity (Atlantic and Pacific) Florida –Frost and citrus crops Pacific Northwest –Snowpack and hydropower, flood events, recreation, stream flow, etc.

7. Products: Forecasts of wintertime precipitation in the Yaqui Valley Catchment (winter reservoir inflow is correlated with wintertime precipitation at r =0.87) For use with a forecast of ENSO The prediction skill of the wintertime state of ENSO starting in October is > 0.9 Nino 3.4 Winter Precipitation (mm) ENSO and NDJFMA precipitation

8. Monsoon onset is delayed during ENSO warm events. The delayed monsoon onset results in reduced cumulative rainfall through wet season. ENSO Impacts: Java ENSO accounts for 61% of the variance in annual rice production (1C Nino3.4 1 Gt rice production)

9. Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of drought 3.Global Warming 4.Impact of Agriculture on Climate

10. Decadal Variability in Sahel Precipitation Precipitation in the Sahel is linked to Sea Surface Temperature changes (wet is associated with lower SST in the S. Atlantic and Indian Oceans) Mainly due to natural climate variability; some part due to 20th Century changes in CO 2 and NH aerosols. Future role of Global Warming unclear 1970-90 Minus 1940-60 Change in Summer Precip Correlation of Sahel Summer Precipitation with SST

11. Historical Yaqui Reservoir Runoff, 1965-2004 Fig. From Jose-Luis Minjares 1992 2003 Main Reservoir Yaqui System

12. The recent drought in the Yaqui Valley: how extreme? The reconstructed precipitation record extends from 1650 to 1985 AD. The average return time for a drought similar to the most recent (winter) drought –six years at 63% of normal precipitation is about a century; –Five years (1998-9 to 2002-3) at 50% of normal is unprecedent in 350 yrs. –For reference, the winter average precipitation for 1950- 1960 was 79% of normal. Note: paleo records suggest numerous “megadroughts” in past 1000 years in the US that are presumably natural variability.

13. Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of drought 3.Global Warming 4.Impact of Agriculture on Climate

14. Natural Climate InfluenceHuman Climate Influence All Climate Influences

15. We Are We Headed? 21 st Century Climate Change Projections

17. 21 st century temperature change IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)

18. Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 Projections of Future Climate

19. How will climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases? the planet will warm, more so in middle and high latitudes than in the tropics; the hydrologic cycle will speed up; the area covered by snow and sea ice in winter will decrease; the sea level will rise; Increased flooding in some areas. Many changes projected by the models are robust and reliable. Examples of changes that are very likely* over the next 100 years include: These changes will be much, much greater than the changes seen over the past 150 years that have been attributed to increased greenhouse gases and aerosols.

20. Trend in Daily Temperature Range 1950-1993 Night is warming faster than day.

21. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Increased growing season at high latitudes Increased minimum temperature (crop growth and pest/pathogen effects) Continental drying in midlatitudes (?) Changes in timing of stream flow in mid and high latitudes (water availability, etc) Changes in heat wave frequency and intensity; change in frost days. Changing patterns of drought. CO 2 effects on soil BGC, plant pathology; ocean acidification, etc.

22. Precipitation change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 Projections of Future Climate

23. How will climate change affect agriculture in the tropics and subtropics? Changes in the annual cycle in precipitation throughout the tropics: –The spatial and temporal structure of the monsoons will change in a significant way (eg, making places dry that are presently wet; changing the duration of the monsoon) Changes in ENSO Changes in the teleconnection patterns associated with ENSO –Changing patterns, duration and intensity of drought (world-wide). It is highly likely that increasing CO2 will cause large changes in the patterns and intensity of precipitation throughout the tropics within the next 50yrs, including: Unfortunately, the present generation of climate models can not address these issues. But we are making progress ….

24. Thank you