1. BIOMASS FUTURES: Biomass role in achieving the Climate Change & Renewables EU policy targets. Demand and Supply dynamics under the perspective of stakeholders EIE/08/ 653/ June 2009- March 2012

2. Introduction Biomass Futures Stakeholders DemandSupply Renewable Energy Directive NREAPs

3. Project Summary The project aimed to quantify the sustainable role biomass can play to meet the RESD targets for 2020. To do so, the consortium worked through a series of interrelated work packages in order to provide a better understanding of bioenergy demand and supply dynamics, and to what extend and how a sustainable production and use of domestic and imported biomass sources can contribute to EU27 energy needs. The project has been executed in close collaboration with key stakeholders to identify sustainable options for bioenergy development and deployment to the year 2030, and to increase awareness about the opportunities and the risks, and how these can be addressed. 3

4. Objectives & main steps The objective of this project is to use modeling frameworks in order to inform policy with quantitative information on the role biomass can play to meet the RES-D targets for 2020. Main steps are: – Develop linkages to well established models (Admire- REBUS, BIOTRANS, PRIMES), harmonise data and assumptions and refine spatial resolution – Quantify demand and supply dynamics through market segmentation (heat, electricity-CHP and transport) – Provide indicators for indirect land use, air, water, soil and social issues. Quantify their impacts on supply. – Assess the role biomass can play in meeting the EU policy targets for RES-D at EU27 and MS level. – Inform and support policy makers at European and national level and generate information for biomass role which will be taken into account in the formation of NAPs. – Collaborate with stakeholders to monitor their perspectives & views, get their feedback and integrate it to the project outputs/ deliverables. 4

5. Biomass Futures contribution to policy formation Added value EU27 policy To present the role sustainable biomass can play in the heat, electricity/ CHP & transport sectors by 2020 (EU27 & MS), based on: Market analysis Reliable, harmonised & update sustainable cost supply curves Key value chains of biomass for energy & fuels Conflict among the different sectors Validation through an extensive stakeholder network MS officials Validate national data for NREAPs Prioritise indigenous biomass value chains.

6. Project Results Market segment analysis, for heat, electricity / CHP and transport markets Spatially explicit sustainable biomass cost supply patterns including imports Biomass role in the heat, electricity- CHP and transport sectors, in the framework of the RES-D compared to NREAPs, using different demand scenarios, timeframes (2020- 2030) and sustainability constraints. Improved comprehension and development of criteria for indirect land use change, water, air and soil quality as well as social issues, and their impacts on biomass availability and costs. Continuous stakeholders consultations to ensure the market perspective in relation to biomass demand and supply. Involve policy stakeholders to discuss concerns and key on-going issues as well as ensure information transfer throughout the project. 6

7. Website: www.biomassfutures.euwww.biomassfutures.eu Co-ordinator Dr Calliope Panoutsou Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London c.panoutsou@imperial.ac.uk 7 PARTNERS  International Systems of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, AT)  Centre for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES, GR)  Oeko- Institut, Institute for Applied Ecology (Oeko, DE)  Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN, NL)  Alterra b.v. (NL)  Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP, UK)  Insitute of Communication and Computer Systems/ E3M Lab (ICCS, GR)