1. California Energy Commission End-User Natural Gas Forecast for California May 21, 2015 Chris Kavalec Energy Assessments Division Chris.Kavalec@energy.ca.gov / 916-654-5184 1

2. California Energy Commission Forecast Methods Comes from California Energy Demand 2016-2026 Preliminary Forecast (CED 2015) Five Sectors: agricultural, commercial, industrial, residential, TCU (transportation, communication, and utilities), plus transportation Separate models for each sector; three forecast cases: high, mid, and low Models driven by economic/demographic growth, natural gas prices, weather, and efficiency improvements 2

3. California Energy Commission Forecast Methods Four planning areas: PG&E, SoCalGas, SDG&E, and “other” Incorporates building and appliance standards and utility incentive programs Incorporates climate change through changes in heating degree days Rainfall included as driver in agricultural sector 3

4. California Energy Commission Forecast Structure 4

5. California Energy Commission Statewide End-User Consumption Higher starting point and faster growth vs. CED 2013 5

6. California Energy Commission Consumption from Transportation Responsible for faster growth vs. CED 2013 6

7. California Energy Commission Average Annual Growth Mid Case, 2014-2026 7

8. California Energy Commission Impact of Climate Change Consumption decrease from fewer heating degree days 8

9. California Energy Commission Potential Impact from Drought Continued drought: average rainfall 2012-2014 9

10. California Energy Commission Next Steps Revised forecast in fall –Incorporate comments –Updated historical consumption –Updated econ-demo –Updated natural gas prices –Additional achievable energy efficiency from CPUC potential study Comments/questions? 10