1. BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook Joe Fitz Chief of Research and Statistics Board of Equalization

2. Actual Forecast 1/ 2011201220132014 Real Gross Domestic Product (Percent Change)1.8%2.2%1.6%2.7% Consumer Price Index (Percent Change)3.1%2.1%1.3%1.5% Unemployment Rate (Percent)8.9%8.1%7.6%7.2% Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Rates2.8%1.8%2.2%2.7% 1/ Source: Global Insight July 2013 forecast U.S. Economic Forecast Selected U.S. Economic Indicators

3. Real Gross Domestic Product

4. Real Growth by Component of Consumption

5. Real Growth by Component of Nonresidential Investment

6. Real Growth by Component of Residential Investment

7. Real Growth of Exports and Imports

8. Real Growth of Government Spending

9. Consumer Prices

10. U.S. Gasoline Prices (Cents/gallon)

11. U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

12. Federal Deficit (Federal FY, Billions $)

13. Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield (%)

14. Monthly Financial Obligations as a Percent of Disposable Income

15. Percent Change in U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

16. U.S. Employment Growth

17. 2013-14 May Revision Forecasts for California 20132014 Unemployment Rates9.4%8.6% Nonagricultural Employment Growth2.1%2.0% Personal Income Growth2.1%5.7% Taxable Sales3.9%7.5% Housing Permits (Thousands of units)82121

19. Changes in Taxable Sales From 2006 to 2011 (Top Ten Cities Ranked by Population)

20. 2011 Per Capita Taxable Sales (Top Ten Cities Ranked by Population)

21. Cities Expanding in Taxable Sales (Ranked by Population of the Top Ten Expanding Cities)

22. Cities Not Expanding in Taxable Sales (Ranked by Population of the Top Ten Cities Not Expanding)

23. 2010 and 2011 Changes in Taxable Sales (Top Ten Cities Ranked by Population)

24. 2010 and 2011 Changes in Taxable Sales Cities Expanding in Taxable Sales

25. 2010 and 2011 Changes in Taxable Sales Cities Not Expanding in Taxable Sales

26. Questions???