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Published byJade Harrington Modified over 9 years ago
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Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013
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(% y/y ) World GDP growth (IMF) 3.6% Oct‘12 4.6% Oct‘12
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GDP growth in emerging vs advanced economies 3 % q/q, saar (dashed lines are 2010/2012 averages) Emerging markets Advanced economies
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United States GDP performance Index, Q1 2006 = 100 US
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%y/y US leading indicator
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US$ trillion US statutory limit on Federal Debt US debt ceiling US government debt
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$ billion US Federal Reserve Total Assets QE 1 QE 2 QE 3
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%y/y Euro-area leading indicator
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Euro-area: economic sentiment indicator Index, 100 = average Core of Euro-area Periphery of Euro-area
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Index Q1 2006 = 100 Euro-area GDP index (real) vs US real GDP index USA GDP Euro-area GDP
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% unemployed Youth unemployment rate in Germany
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% unemployed Youth unemployment rate in Greece
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% Developed vs Emerging market inflation rate Emerging markets Developed markets
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% US consumer inflation
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% Euro-area Consumer inflation in the Euro-area
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%y/y Japan consumer inflation rate 2% target set in Jan 2013 Headline inflation Core inflation
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% UK Euro-area US Euro-area, US, Japan and UK official interest rates Japan
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%, y/y, real terms China real GDP growth
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China rebalancing needed % of total China GDP Fixed investment activity Consumer activity
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%y/y Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth
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%y/y, real GDP growth, average over 10 years Sub-Saharan Africa fastest growing economies Past 10 years
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% of GDP Sub-Saharan Africa Government Debt as % of GDP
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$ billion Sub-Saharan Africa net foreign direct investment
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South Africa’s international perception
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%, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real SA consumer disposable income
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%, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real Consumer incomeConsumer spending SA consumer spending vs disposable income
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Index SA manufacturing activity vs retail activity SA retail activity SA manufacturing activity SA economic recovery has been consumption based, rather than production based
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% of total SA manufacturing production as % of GDP
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Rbn SA trade balance – 12 month moving average
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% over past three months. Personal loans SA growth in consumer unsecured credit
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Index SA consumer confidence (BER)
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SA formal sector employment Million Still 75 000 formal sector jobs below the peak
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Thousands SA mining employment
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%q/q, annualised Growth in fixed investment spending
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%y/y OECD leading indicator vs SA leading indicator OECD leading indicator (lhs) SA leading indicator (rhs) %y/y
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SA exports to Africa R billion, 6-month moving average SA exports more to Africa than to North and South America combined
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R Billions SA travel receipts World Soccer Cup 2010
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R Billions SA net travel account
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Building plans passed – residential sector Rbn, constant prices, 12-month moving average
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% y/y SA headline CPI forecast
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% SA Interest Rate Forecast Prime rate Repo rate
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