1. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

2. September 30 – October 1, 2004, Dublin, Ireland Jiří Spitz ENVIROS, s. r. o. Czech Republic UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin GHG Emission Projections in the Czech Republic – Methodological Approach Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication

3. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Presentation structure importance of GHG emission projections projections with measures, with additional measures and without measures why to have even more scenarios methodology –tools –accounting of mitigation measures –scenario without measures results comparison sensitivity analysis

4. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Importance of GHG emissions projections

5. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Importance of GHG emissions projections – contd. From the foregoing graph might seem GHG emissions are not an issue for the Czech Republic. But: –EU is likely to be more progressive in climate protection than Kyoto –~14 kg CO 2ekv per capita in the CR vs. ~11 kg average in the EU –the emission decrease was substantially influenced by drop of economy –trading with emission permits (national allocation plan) –feeling of general responsibility for the climate  GHG emission projections are important and not only in NC4 context.

6. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Scenario with measures (2003 projections) measures realised between1995 – 2000 (accounted in projections) –clean air legislation –state programmes Czech Energy Agency (support of energy efficiency & RES) State Environmental Fund (air protection) GEF efficient lighting transport support of forestation alternative motor fuels

7. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Scenario with measures (2003 projections) – contd. measures realised after 2000 (with exception of wastes not yet accounted in projections) –new Clean Air Act –act on IPPC effective from 2003 for new installations effective from 2012 for existing ones –act on wastes –act on packaging

8. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Scenario with additional measures (2003 projections) additional measures –National Energy Efficiency & RES Programme the programme sets indicative targets in emission reduction –environmental tax on energy politically controversial issue –increased support of RES

9. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Scenario without measures (2003 projections) scenario as if none of the listed measures would have been realised

10. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Why to have even more scenarios?

11. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Why to have even more scenarios? – contd. sensitivity analysis to the most unreliable inputs –prediction of the GDP is more difficult due to two „economical shocks“ transition from planned to market economy accession to the EU –(rather) political issues future of the nuclear energy utilisation of domestic lignite

12. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Proposed scenarios three GDP scenarios –reference – average annual growth 3.6 % –low – average annual growth 2.9 % –high – average annual growth 4.3 % two nuclear + lignite scenarios –no new nuclear power plants + extension of lignite mines –new nuclear plants possible after 2015 + no further extension of lignite mines

13. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Methodology - tools energy sector –energy demand MEDEE-like spreadsheets CGE model –technology mix EFOM/ENV model –model type linear optimising technology oriented bottom-up –all combustion processes in all sectors & ferrous metallurgy –CO 2, NO X, SO 2, CO, particulates, fugitive CH 4 from coal & natural gas

14. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Methodology – tools – contd. agriculture & forestry – specialised models CO 2 from lime desulphurisation – calculated „manually“ CO 2 in industry – spreadsheet model (important only cement + glass) waste management – spreadsheet model N 2 O – spreadsheet model on the sector level HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 – spreadsheet model on the national level

15. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Methodology – accounting of measures measures incorporated into the energy demand forecast –technological standards thermal insulation of buildings minimal efficiencies of energy technologies measures built-in in the technology model –technology development –fuel switching –demand-side saving measures (above requirements of standards) –taxes and subsidies on energy –national emission ceilings

16. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Methodology – accounting of measures – contd. measures accounted outside models –quantified realised and planned JI projects investments realised within state energy efficiency & RES programmes –estimated non-technology part of state energy efficiency & RES programmes –omitted due to lack of data some political and declarative measures, where the benefit can be hardly quantified what should be added for NC4 –trading with emission permits

17. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Methodology – scenario without measures the most complicated scenario small simplification – all mitigation programmes began after 1992 calculation started form scenario with measures –increase of energy demand - removing insulation and efficiency standards –removing taxes and subsidies on energy applied after 1995 –addition of saved emissions from state energy efficiency & RES programmes –addition of emissions from JI projects –removing of impact of clean air legislation (fuel switch lignite  natural gas) – a spreadsheet task

18. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Result comparison

19. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Result comparison – contd. main drivers –scenario with measures clean air legislation (mainly SO 2 problem) – 3716 Gg CO 2ekv in 2000 –large installations equipped with cleaning technologies –small installations switched from coal to natural gas –support to gasification in households state energy efficiency & RES programmes – 3442 Gg CO 2ekv in 2000 –scenario with additional measures introduction of very strong ecological tax on energy + supported feed-in tariffs for electricity from RES – 16518 Gg CO 2ekv in 2020 new National Energy Efficiency & RES Programme – 6614 Gg CO 2ekv in 2020

20. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Sensitivity analysis

21. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Sensitivity analysis – contd. influence of GDP growth –change of 0.7 % in average GDP growth  5000 Gg CO 2ekv in 2010 influence of new nuclear power plants –new NPP could be finished around the year 2020 saving of another  5000 Gg CO 2ekv in 2020

22. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Conclusion it is possible and useful to develop all three scenarios additional scenarios were calculated as a kind of sensitivity analysis there remain issues to be solved –trading with emission permits –assessment of impact of political, organisational, voluntary and declarative measures

23. UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin Thank for your attention! Contacts: ENVIROS, s. r. o. Prague, Czech Republic Phone: +420 284 007 499 Fax: +420 284 861 245 E-mail: office@enviros.cz www.enviros.cz