1. Energy Development in China - From a View Point of Sustainable Development Yang Hongwei, Zhou Dadi Energy Research Institute, P. R. China yanghw@mx.cei.gov.cn SBSTA in-session workshop on climate mitigation Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany 19 June 2004

2. World Energy Trend 19712000201020202030 Coal14492355270231543606 Oil24503604427250205769 Natural gas8952085279434984203 Nuclear power29674753728703 Hydropower104228274320366 Other renewables73233336477618 Total50009179111311319815265 IEA, 2003. (Mtoe) 200020102020203020402050 Coal22283003-42353836-55044666-71864738-82274872-9457 Oil38544214-52804223-69224050-92013625-112733273-13903 Natural gas24732928-34813653-49224471-68135402-94866619-13369 Nuclear power230268-371327-726359-1275547-1933911-2930 Bio-energy1139897900-14701280-20801890-30702870-4600 Other renewables271300-360370-550530-960760-19601140-3990 Total1019312100-1340014100-1700016500-2140018900-2640021300-31200 IPCC scenarios (Mtoe)

3. Stable increase in world energy demand and consumption Fossil fuel as dominant energy resource in the following decades Impacts of technology development on future energy utilization Role of environment in energy development is becoming more important Environmental issue has played an important role in the energy development of many countries, as one of the most important reasons why many countries selected oil and natural gas as major energy sources Climate change will exert important influence on long term energy development in many countries

4. Different situation for energy development Oil & natural gas dominant period? Optimization of final consumption has completed? Local environmental protection: strict standard, higher environmental cost? Constraints for nuclear power development?

5. China is a developing country Per capita GDP is only about 1,000 US dollars Per capita commercial energy consumption is only 1 tce More than 60% people live in the rural area, living on the agriculture Need another 50 years to become a middle level developed country

6. Per capita GDP in 1999 in some countries （ US$ ） (1995 constant price).

8. Pre capita living areas (m 2 )

9. Per capita car ownership

10. Per capita steel production (kg/person)

11. Social economic development, the highest priority Economic development is and will be the dominant social target; To be a middle level developed country by the middle of this century; High economic growth rate is expected, needed, and possible for longer period

12. Long process for industrialization Industrialization is still the main course of economic and social development for decades Manufacture industry will keep increase Urbanization will be speed up, with more than 1% population moving into cities each year Need more job for young people and farmers, 10 million new positions needed annually Infrastructure construction is far from completed

13. Energy consumption and GHG emission will increase for many years TPE consumption in China will be doubled or increase even more in the next two decades Per capita energy consumption will be close to the world average by around 2020 Per capita GHG emission still much lower than that from developed countries Energy consumption in China remains at very low level compared to many other countries Trend of China’s energy development is within the very normal range, compared to the development history of other countries

14. Per capita GDP (1000 US$) Per capita emissions (t-C)

16. Per capita GDP (1000 US$) Emission intensity (t-C/1000 US$)

17. Continuous efforts on sustainable development Efforts include activities in many fields Outstanding achievement in energy efficiency Efforts on developing energy alternatives Efforts on forestry protection and reforestation Enhance local environment protection Land management to promote sinks

18. Energy efficiency improvement Promulgated Energy Conservation Law Developed energy conservation plans for each of the 5 years’ development plans Issued associated energy conservation policy and regulations Established comprehensive energy conservation management and service system Issued technical guidance for energy conservation Developed and enforced series of energy conservation standards Initiated national energy conservation programs

19. Achievement in energy efficiency Average GDP annual growth rate 9.7% from 1980 to 2000, energy consumption increased 3.9% annually Kept the energy consumption elasticity coefficient around 0.5 from 1980 to 2000, Energy intensity decreased more than 5% annually in the same period, (1.1% in average for the world) More than billion tons of fossil fuel saved

20. Action in renewables By the end of 2000 ， small and mini hydro up to 23.799 GW, generating power 77.2 TWh Widely use of solar heaters all over the country Development of PV, especially for power supply in remote areas

21. Future development The elasticity of industrial energy consumption can be obviously less than that of other sectors, especially in the energy-intensive industries Substantial progress could be made in optimizing energy mix through speeding-up the development of natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and full utilization of the international oil & gas resources Accelerating the optimization of energy mix will promote energy efficiency improvement, reduce energy demand and improve energy supply security Environmental issue will play a more and more important role in China’s future energy development The growth rate of GHG emission can be mitigated by strengthening the enforcement of sustainable energy strategy