1. 1 Brendan Devlin Adviser, Markets and Infrastructure Directorate B, DG ENER European Commission

2. 2 2008/2009 20112014 Climate and energy: where do we stand? The EU climate and energy package

3. 3 Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions levels by 20% Increase share of Renewables to 20% Reductions in 2012: -18% 2020 Targets 2020 Projection Share in 2011: 12.7% 2020 Projection Climate and energy: where do we stand? Reduce energy consumption by 20%

4. 4 Climate and energy: where do we stand? Renewable energy saw rapid cost decreases Technologies are gradually becoming competitive Impact of the financial crisis Fall in private investment, tight financing conditions Rising demand -> rising prices By 2030, world economy set to double and energy demand to rise by 1/3 Fukushima Some countries phase out nuclear power production Shale gas US oil and gas production Unconventional gas Conventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional oil

5. 5 Why a 2030 framework? GHG reductions in a cost- effective way Security of energy supplies Competitive energy and new growth and jobs EU contribution 2015 agreement

6. 6 IA's policy options: 7 scenarios

7. 7 IA main conclusions Reference scenario 32% GHG reductions 24% RES 21% Energy savings Costs related to ambitious GHG targets are relatively limited if targets are met in a cost- effective way Ambitious EE and RES have positive impacts on External fuel bill Health (lower pollutant emissions) GDP and jobs Energy Efficiency is key to contain energy cost increases Global climate efforts will have positive impacts EU competitiveness

8. 8 2030 climate and energy Framework 20 % GHG 40 % GHG 20% RES 20 % EE ≥ 27 % RES..2014 2020 2030 New Key Indicators New governance system

9. 9 2030 Framework: Key indicators Energy price differentials Diversification imports, share of indigenous energy Smart grids & connections between Member States Intra-EU coupling energy markets Technological innovation Competition and market concentration

10. 10 2030 Framework: New Governance System National plans for competitive, secure and sustainable energy Commission details guidance on the new governance process and contents of national plans Member States prepare plans based on an iterative process Commission assess Member States' plans and commitments Include domestic objectives on: non-ETS GHG emissions renewable energy energy savings energy security ….

11. 11 Main challenges… Increasing in any event: renew ageing energy system, rising fossil fuel prices, meeting the climate and energy targets already agreed upon Energy costs Shift away from fuel expenditure towards investments, additional € 38 billion investment/year 2011-2030 compared to the reference scenario Additional investments to achieve 2030 framework Future discussion will have to be centred on how to ensure an equitable burden sharing affordable for all Differences between Member States

12. 12 …and benefits Fuel savings: additional € 18 billion fuel per year next 2 decades Energy security: additional 11% cut in energy imports in 2030 Innovation: jobs & growth Health and air pollution benefits: €7-13.5 billion in 2030 Reductions vs 2005: ETS -43% Non ETS -30% Decoupling of Gross Domestic Product growth from Greenhouse Gas Emissions will continue

13. 13 Next steps At European level March 2014: European Council February 2014: European Parliament Energy Efficiency Directive: 2014 Review and proposals Emissions Trading System proposal: co-decision procedure Development/implementation of new governance structure Competitiveness and energy security indicators And at international level 2014: Ban Ki-moon Climate Summit of World leaders 2015: contributions from Parties; Paris conference adopts international agreement

14. 14 ec.europa.eu/energy/2030 LZ/A1

15. 15 A legislative proposal to establish a market stability reserve for the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) Recommendation, accompanied by a Communication, on the environmental aspects on unconventional fossil fuels A Report, accompanied by a Communication, on energy prices and costs in Europe Communication for a European industrial renaissance Also in the "Package"