1. EU Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
2 July 2012
Artur Runge-Metzger
Director, DG CLIMA

2. Outline Climate policy challenges Where does the EU stand now?
Roadmap 2050
Global analysis
EU analysis
Next steps

3. Limiting climate change – a global challenge
Science requires that global emissions are cut by 50% by 2050 compared to 1990
EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990, in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries
Need for a low carbon 2050 strategy providing the framework for the longer term action
Need to fix intermediary stages towards reaching the 2050 objective
Need to keep developments under review on a regular basis

4. Climate change threatening future economic growth
2005 : US$ 228 billion

5. Climate Action until 2020

6. Where does the EU stand now?
EU emissions reduced by 15.5%
EU GDP grew 40%
EU on track towards 20% emission reduction by 2020

7. However, majority of Member States will not meet national non-ETS target in 2020
2020 projections
2020 national target
Current projections show the EU would meet its 2020 target. However, for 13 Member States, the existing policies would not be sufficient to reach their national target.

8. Roadmap 2050:
Global analysis

9. 2050 Roadmap
The first extensive global and EU analysis on how the long term target can be reached:
identifies cost-effective pathway, with intermediate milestones,
identifies key technologies guiding R&D,
identifies investments needs and benefits,
identifies opportunities and trade-offs,
guides EU, national and regional policies,
gives direction to private sector and private households for long term investments.
why is it that climate change is at the heart of Europe’s 2020 strategy

10. The impact of climate action on the global temperature increase by 2100
Global emissions pathway in the next 40 years will determine likely warming by the end of the century

11. Only global climate action reduces emissions in all parts of the world
EU objective: 80 to 95% reductions largely through domestic measures:
around -80% internal reductions in 2050 compared to 1990
Developed Countries:
similar efforts
Developing Countries:
-5% compared to 1990
Equivalent to - 80% compared to business as usual
no cheap offsets by 2050

12. Global climate action leads to converging emissions per capita

13. Global climate action reduces fossil fuel prices

14. Global forestry and agriculture must be part of the solution
Need to ensure food security to feed 9 billion people
EU objective of eliminating net deforestation around 2030
Efforts to reduce agricultural emissions, or rather limit their increase
Increased biomass use for energy as a result of global action on climate change 14

15. Global agricultural productivity matters for future food prices
No yield improvement
Base case: Only 0.5% yield improvement for crops
Base case + also 0.5% yield improvement for livestock 15

16. Roadmap 2050:
EU analysis

17. A cost-efficient pathway towards 2050
80% domestic reduction in 2050 is feasible
with currently available technologies,
with behavioural change only induced through prices
If all economic sectors contribute to a varying degree & pace.
Efficient pathway:
-25% in 2020
-40% in 2030
-60% in 2040

18. Roadmap 2050: Energy efficiency will be key
Energy efficiency is the single most important contribution by 2050
Also essential in the short term
Climate and energy package: 20% GHG reduction, 20% renewables and 20% energy efficiency improvement
Current policies only result in 10% energy efficiency improvement
Roadmap confirms key role of efficiency up to 2020 and beyond
Efforts towards 20% efficiency target would deliver 25% GHG reduction
ETS is one instrument to deliver additional efficiency

19. Investing in innovation …
Roadmap 2050:
Investing in innovation …
Additional domestic investment: € 270 billion annually during , equivalent to 1.5% of GDP (Total investment – 19% of GDP in 2009), of which
built environment (buildings and appliances): € 75 billion
transport (vehicles and infrastructure): € 150 billion
power (electricity generation, grid): € 30 billion

20. Roadmap 2050: … means saving energy, reducing energy bill and raising air quality & health
Fuel savings: € 175 to 320 billion on average annually during
Primary energy consumption about 30% below 2005 without negatively affecting energy services
Making EU economy more energy secure:
Halves imports of oil and gas compared to today
Saving € 400 billion of EU oil and gas import bill in 2050, equivalent to > 3% of today’s GDP
Air quality and health benefits: € 27 billion in 2030 and € 88 billion in 2050

21. Creating new jobs in the EU
Roadmap 2050:
Creating new jobs in the EU
Where will new jobs come from?
Short term: e.g. in renovation of buildings, production of insulation materials, renewables industry
Potential net job creation up to 1.5 million by 2020
Use auctioning revenues from EU emissions trading system and tax revenues for reduction of labour costs and increase in investments and R&D
Long term job prospects depend on favourable economic framework conditions, e.g. expenditure on research & technology development, innovation, entrepreneurship, new skills, investment

22. Roadmap 2050: Making the EU fit for the global low-carbon race
All competitors develop their own low carbon strategies, e.g.
US:
1 million electric cars on road by 2015
80% clean energy by 2035
China:
Two-year investment plan: +0.8% GDP on innovation, restructuring, energy conservation, emissions reductions and ecological improvement
12th 5-year plan ( ): reducing emissions per unit of GDP by 17%, accelerating R&D and use of low-carbon technologies, low-carbon pilot projects

23. EU’s policy challenges (1)
Ensure the achievement of 20% energy efficiency target by 2020, and in this context use the role of the emissions trading system
Give clarity for long term investments, especially in ETS sectors
Define policy framework
Upward review of 1.74% linear reduction to be considered to achieve -80% GHG emissions by 2050
Measures to protect vulnerable industries against carbon leakage in the case of fragmented action 23

24. EU’s policy challenges (2)
Implement Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan (€ 50 billion from )
Develop innovative financing instruments to use limited public finance to leverage private sector investments in the next EU budget, e.g. in cohesion policy
Use CAP to contribute to further emission reductions and increased absorption of natural sinks, taking into account the increased demand for agricultural and forestry products including for bio-energy

25. Next steps
Negotiation of EU Multi-annual Financial Framework and detailed legislation for individual spending programmes.
Further Commission analysis of cost efficient and equitable mix of individual policy instruments and implications for individual Member States.
Member States to develop long-term national and regional low emission development strategies.

26. For further information: http://ec. europa
For further information: policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm 26 26