1. Traditional Energy: Fossil, Nuclear and Hydro

2. Energy Consumption by Source (USA) EIA – Energy Information Agency (US government agency) Age of wood Age of coal Age of hydrocarbons

3. Global Energy Consumption Solar and wind are still insignificant

4. Global Electricity IEA 2013 Key Statistics Coal is #1, oil is out, natural gas is in, other than hydro, renewables still small.

5. BP (British Petroleum) Outlook Oil, gas, coal will dominate for decades to come. Even new energy is dominated by fossil fuels

6. Petroleum  The largest source of primary energy  Very high energy density  Extremely portable  Global market  90% of the transportation in the USA  # 1 geopolitical commodity  Annual World consumption ~ 1 mile cube  Use to make plastics  Roads - asphalt 2C 8 H 18 (l) + 25O 2 (g) → 16CO 2 (g) + 18H 2 O(g) ΔH = −5.51 MJ/mol of octane Energy density ~ 40 MJ/kg

7. Petroleum more facts  Key world exporters are  Middle east  Africa  Russia  Norway  South America Oil is often a curse rather than blessing for a country, leads to political and economic instabilities (wars in middle east, collapse of Soviet Union, good and bad time for president Putin)

8. Global Oil: China vs. USA USA moves towards self sufficiency via decreasing demand and increasing production. China does the opposite. My bet is on the USA.

9. Peak Oil The rate of resource extraction increases, peaks, and declines, assuming finite amount of resource. M. King Hubbard predicted in 1950 that US production will peak ~ 1970 – he was ridiculed, but he was right Alaska Shale oil

10. Production Cost per Barrel When marginal cost of oil production meets a price that a marginal consumer is able to pay, the price and production values are set

11. Capital Expenditure (Capex problem) Oil production has faltered, even as capex has soared Capex productivity has fallen by a factor of five since 2000 Oil majors are burning cash, taking debt and selling assets Currently (2014) shale gas companies spend ~ $1.5 per each $1.0 of revenues

12. Export Land Model When a country oil production peaks and the consumption continue to increase export declines very rapidly

13. Natural Gas The fastest growing fossil fuel

14. Natural Gas US will be a major liquefied gas exporter

15. Coal  40% of the world’s electricity needs.  The second source of primary energy  60% growth from 2000 to 2012  From 2005 to 2015 China installed 150 MW daily  Energy density – 24 MJ/kg – 6.7 kW-h/kg, 325 kg to light 100 W bulb for a year.  Efficiency of the electric plant – up to 40% (30% average)  China ~ 50% of the World production  # one polluter (air, waste), use of water, land  Lignite (brown coal) is even worst, but widely used in Europe (Germany, Poland)

16. Co-generation  Up to 80% efficiency.  Requires heating from a central plant of thousands of households  No compatible with suburbia  Finland 80% of electricity with co-generation Can anything useful can be done with waste heat generated by the RPI supercomputer?

17. CO 2 Emission We are cooked (for sure our children are cooked)

18. Clean Coal Clean coal is a propaganda – not economically viable Coal sequestration requires power: -fired power plant would have to burn roughly 25 percent more coal to handle carbon sequestration while producing the same amount of electricity. The harder challenge is to transport and to bury all of this high-pressure CO 2. Collectively, America's coal-fired power plants generate 1.5 billion tons CO 2 per year. Capturing this means filling 30 million barrels with liquid CO 2 every single day--about one and a half times the volume of crude oil the country consumes. Serious plans to engineer--much less finance--such a vast project aren't even on the table.

19. Nuclear Increase in China – otherwise decline

20. Coal and nuclear electric power vs. energy Nuclear and coal run at high utilization ratios, gas is for intermittence – energy storage make sense even for traditional energy mix Michiganscheduled March 23, 2015 from 2:15 PM to 3:30 PM

21. Hydro By far #1 renewable energy source ~ 10% or electricity In Canada ~ 65% Limited by available resource requires large bodies of flowing water and have major environmental impact 90% efficient Also # 1 large scale energy storage

22. Larges Hydro Plants

23. Traditional Energy Summary This is what runs the World It is generally cheap when environmental costs are not accounted for There are severe environmental impacts, most importantly air and water pollution Hydro is mostly max out Nuclear energy is perhaps the most environment friendly but politics fueled by few spectacular failures limits the potential – future might be different Liquid fuels production rates appear to be close to the peak