1. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress Agostinho Vilanculos Supervisors: - Prof. Denis Hughes (IWR, Rhodes University, SA) - Dr. Elonio Muiwane (Eduardo Mondlane University, Moz) Balancing water for improving multireservoir system Operation using hydrological information: Integrated hydrological modeling special focus on Zambezi river basin

2. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress Outline Background - Related Previous Studies - Geographic Location - Surface Water Potential Methodology Preliminary finds Further Studs Questions and comments

3. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress PREVIOUS STUDIES IN THE STUDY AREA Existing and applied Water Resources Systems: -Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting (Jessen, 2001); -Flood Watch Model (DHI, 2009); -Comparison of two model approaches in the Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiably (Winsemius et al., 2006); -Impact of climatic Changes on hydrology (Asante and Vilanculos, 2009).

4. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University BACKGROUND: Problem and Motivation Problem statement: 30 million in 2030 70 million Pop. growth will increase water demand for agric. And energy 80% population lives on rainfed agriculture Irrigation potential more than 3 million ha only 5% are developed Poor ground hydro-climatic monitoring infra-structures (Tumbare, 2004; Asante, 2007; FAO, 2007) Motivation: GIS-RS-Hydrologic Model tools Geographic Location

5. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress Water Resources Potential - Climatic and Hydrology Hydrology: River and Discharge Lukulo river - 4.1 km 3 /year Zambezi river - 33.5 km 3 /year Kafue river - 10 km 3 /year Luangwa river - 22 km 3 /year Shiri River - 16 km 3 /year Kabora Bassa lake - 77.5 km 3 /year Malawi Lake - 29 km 3 /year Shiri Out flow to Moz- 12.5 km 3 /year Rainfall: Range from 570mm/year (Simi Arid Area central to 2190mm/year in East and North Source: (Hungwe et. al;., 2000FAO, 2007 Tumbare, 2004 ). Countries Irrigation Potential (ha) Area under irrigation (ha) % of Area under irrigation (ha) Water Requirement total (km³/year) Angola 700 0002 000 0.39. 50 Namibia 11 0006 142 55.80.255 Botswana 1 0800 0.00.006 Zimbabwe 165 40049 327 29.81.737 Zambia 422 00041400 9.85.064 Tanzania 00 0.00.000 Malawi 160 90028 000 17.42.092 Mozambiqu e 1700 00020 000 1.218 700 Total 3 160 380 146 860 4.6518718.65 Irrig. Potential, Water Requirement and area under irrigation

6. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress Water R. Potential - Hydraulic Infrastructure Source: Zambezi River Authority

7. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress AIMS OF THE STUDY Identify the interlinking between up and downstream WRMS. Identify the relationship to be made between power generation and flood impacts downstream. To develop a or no coordinated methodology for daily/monthly operating strategies in the Zambezi River Basin.

8. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress METHODOLOGY Identification of current WRMS and Selection of an existing WRMS Framework Use of a selected WRMS for: -Delineation of preliminary boundaries -Calculation of daily soil water balance and flow -Selection of the monitoring and calibration sites -Run preliminary model in various scenarios (with and without Dam discharges connected) and predicting the impacts downstream Flood Risk Analysis at Downstream Statistics Analysis

9. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University CASE STUDIES 1. Existing Water Resources Management Systems in the Zambezi River Basin - Quest.: What are the WRMS existing in the Study area? 2. Hydrological Scale in Hydrological Models -Quest.: How do different scale hydrological models link with each other? 3. Balancing water for power generation and for other users downstream - Quest.: What is the role of implementing of a muiltreservoir operation system on the integrated river basin management ?

10. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University EXPECTED RESULTS Doctoral thesis in hydrology. Knowledge on downstream implication from upstream operational reservoir in the Zambezi basin. Knowledge on definition of optimal hydropower reservoir operation. Guidelines on how well the multi-reservoir systems in series and parallels can be operated in beneficial main through integrated water resources system framework

11. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University Preliminary Results (1): WRMS- Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting Manual method of counting takes a lot of time it does not gives the quantity of rain for each sub-basin or for the all basin Opportunity: The GIS Spatial Analyst tool offer an excellent functionality

12. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University Preliminary Results (2): WRMS - Mike Flood Watch Model Advantage: Use of observed data Disadvantages: -Designed for small catchments -Depends of the reader -Power Coverage (rain gauges) - Extreme events ( Floods and Droughts ) Floods – Destroy infra-structures Droughts - concentrate in small rills away from the river gauges Opportunities: RFE Satellite Data

13. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University Preliminary Results (3) : Potential Conceptual Model Produced Delineation of model boundaries Preliminary calculation of flows http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro ftp://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/. http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/adds/africa. DEMSoils Data Land Cover/use RainfallEvapotranspiration

14. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress PRELIMINARY RESULTS (4): SELECTION OF CALIBRATION AND MONITORING SITES

15. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University Further Studs Input data validation results are underway Model calibration and preliminary results are underway Creation of Dam Links Modules- Depending on historical data of upstream countries Flood Risk Analysis Hydrological Stochastic analysis

16. Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress Thank you Questions and Comments?