1. The Great Economic Unraveling of 2008-2010: Impacts on the U.S. and Texas Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University Presentation to Chapter 13 Consumer Bankruptcy Seminar Arlington, Texas November 9, 2009

2. Madoff New York Mag

3. Delinquent Mortgages by Type of Loan Source: Wall Street Journal

4. Taking Shelter Source: Wall Street Journal

5. Metros Differ in Subprime Delinquency Rates

6. Subprime Mortgages Highest in D-FW

7. Forced Home Sales

8. Top 5 States Underwater Sources: First American CoreLogic Top states where home mortgage holders in selected markets owed more than their property was worth at the end of June:

9. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Sources: Standard & Poor’s; Fiserv Change in home prices in July 2009 compared with a year earlier.

10. The Scream

11. Household Net Worth Source: New York Times

12. Gross domestic product Source: Commerce Department Real Economic Growth 2005 2006 2007 2008 ’09 2Q 2009: -0.7%

13. Monthly change, in thousands Source: Labor Department Sept ’09: -263,000 2007 2008 2009 Nonfarm Payrolls

14. In percent, seasonally adjusted: Source: U.S. Department of Labor 2008 2009 U. S. Jobless Rate Sept. ’09: 9.8%

15. Source: U.S. Commerce Department Sept. 2009: $345.8 billion 2008 2009 Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted.

16. Aug 2009: $10.2 trillion 2008 2009 Personal Consumption In trillions Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

17. Source: Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production Sept. 2009: 97.5 Index, 2002=100, seasonally adjusted

18. Source: Commerce Department Construction Spending 2008 2009 Aug 2009: $941.9 billion In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

19. Source: Dept. of Commerce; Dept. of H.U.D.; Census Bureau Housing Starts 2008 2009 Sept. Starts: 590,000 New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

20. Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Prices 2008 2009 0 Aug. 2009: 0.2% 000

21. Tracking the Bailout

22. In billions of dollars Source: Office of Management and Budget, White House projections Budget Deficit 2007: -$163 billion 2008: -$454 billion 2009 Estimate: -$1.4 trillion 2010 Projected: -1.2 trillion

23. Source: Texas Workforce Commission Unemployment Rate, U. S., Texas, & D/FW U. S. Sept. 2009 = 9.8% Texas Aug. 2009 = 8.0% D/FW Aug. 2009 = 8.2% U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted

24. Employment Change 2004-2007 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

25. Source: Texas State Data Center *.5 Scenario DFW MSA Projected Population 2005-2040 By Race/Ethnicity and Migration Scenario*

28. Major Threats to Texas Economy  Unstable Energy Prices  Drop in Defense Spending  Lower US Exports  Falling State and Local Tax Receipts

29. Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate Spot Average (Dollars per barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub Spot (Dollars per thousand cubic feet) Source: Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg.com Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: 2006-2009

30. In Billions Source: Comptroller of Public Accounts Trends in State Government Revenues

31. From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2008 2009 Sept. 2009: 53.1

32. Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100. Source: The Conference Board Leading Indicators Aug 2009: 102.2 2007 2008 2009

33. Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income *May & June savings pattern influenced by Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Source: Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis Savings Rate Aug 2009: 3.0% 2007 2008 2009

34. What good are Economists