1. Energy Research and Policy Ernest J. Moniz Cecil and Ida Green Professor Of Physics and Engineering Systems Co-Director, Laboratory for Energy and the Environment May 10, 2006

2. Perfect Storm of Energy Challenges Energy supply and demand e.g. projected doubling of energy use and tripling of electricity use by 2050 in business as usual Energy and security e.g. geological and geopolitical realities of oil supply Energy and environment e.g. greenhouse gas emissions and climate change

3. Future scenarios highly uncertain on mid-century time scale 50-year time scale characteristic of significant change in energy infrastructure, of greenhouse gas concentrations approaching twice pre-industrial,… Multiple uncertainties Resource availability? -fossil fuels, land for renewables,… Science and technology advances? -technology breakthroughs, climate change impacts Geopolitical considerations? -Middle East, climate protocol participation,…

4. US Energy Supply Since 1850 Source: EIA Author: Koonin

5. Global Primary Energy Demand BAU, Ref. Gas Price, Limited Nuclear Source: EPPA

6. Primary Energy Use Per Person

7. Annual Per Capita Electricity Use (kWh) Source: S. Benka, Physics Today, April, 2002

8. Energy and Security Oil (and natural gas) adequate and reliable supply Vulnerability of extended energy delivery systems Nuclear weapons proliferation facilitated by worldwide nuclear power expansion Dislocation from environmental impacts, such as from climate change

9. % World Oil/Gas/Coal Reserves By Region: Geopolitical Issues In Focus C./S. America Asia & Oceania 36 Middle East 57 North America W. Europe Eastern Europe Africa 26 5 5 18 2 2 4 4 8 8 6 6 8 8 6 6 9 9 3 3 27 36 7 7 30 8 8 3 3 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2002 Oil Gas Coal

10. Oil And Energy Security Core Issue: inelasticity of transportation fuels market, together with geographical and geophysical realities of oil Addressing sudden disruptions Strategic reserves Well-functioning markets Increasing and diversifying supplies Enhanced production from existing fields Arctic E&P “Unconventional” oil (tar sands,…) Weakening the “addiction” Very efficient vehicles Alternative fuels (coal, NG, biomass) New transportation paradigm (electricity as “fuel”? H 2 ?)

11. ATMOSPHERE 750 VEGETATION & SOILS 2,190 OCEAN 40,000 60.0 61.3 Changing Land-Use 1.6 0.5 90 92 FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION 5.5 Global Carbon Cycle (IPCC/EIA) All Entries in Billion Metric Tons

12. US Carbon Dioxide Emissions (EIA BAU) Millions of Tonnes - Carbon RESIDENTIAL + COMMERCIALINDUSTRIALTRANSPORTATIONTOTAL 20052025200520252005202520052025 Petroleum4348119142526743688933 Natural Gas 1201491221501014252313 Coal335547005849 Electricity45867518222346644904 TOTAL62487547856254176316432199 1.7%/yr0.8%/yr1.7%/yr1.5%/yr

13. Climate Change Technology/Policy Pathways Efficiency Low carbon or “carbon-less” technologies/fuels Fuel switching, e.g., coal to natural gas Nuclear power (fission, possibly fusion in long term) Renewables (wind, geothermal, solar,…) Note: scale matters Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration

14. The EPPA model can be used to study how world energy markets would adapt to a carbon policy change. In the EPPA world, a significant (but not exorbitant?) CO2 tax leads to emissions stabilization by mid-century. However, the time to stabilization and the scale of emissions are quite dependent on the “tax profile.”

19. If developing economies do not adopt a carbon charge, emissions cannot be stabilized by mid-century. If developing economies adopt a carbon charge but lag behind developed economies in doing so, stabilization of emissions is possible, although achieved later and at a higher level. For example, a 10 year lag increases cumulative emissions to mid- century by less than 10%.

23. Science and Technology for a Clean Energy Future Renewable technologies (wind, solar, geothermal, waves, biofuels) Electrochemical energy storage and conversion Core enabling science and technology (superconducting and cryogenic components, nanotechnology and materials, transport phenomena,…) Nuclear fusion

24. Improving Today’s Energy Systems Advanced nuclear reactors and fuel cycles that address cost, safety, waste, and nonproliferation objectives Affordable supply of fossil-derived fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) from both conventional and unconventional sources and processes Key enablers such as carbon sequestration Thermal conversion and utilization for dramatically enhanced energy efficiency, including in industrial uses Enhanced reliability, robustness and resiliency of energy delivery networks System integration in energy supply, delivery, and use Learning from the past and understanding current public attitudes towards energy systems Understanding and facilitating the energy technology innovation process In-depth integrative energy and technology policy studies that draw on faculty across the campus

25. Energy Systems For a Rapidly Evolving World Science and policy of climate change Advanced efficient building technologies Advanced transportation systems, from novel technologies and new fuels, to systems design including passenger and freight networks “Giga-city” design and development, particularly in the developing world