1. An assessment of the global land use change and food security effects of the use of agricultural residues for bioenergy production Edward Smeets, Andrzej Tabeau, Hans van Meijl 19th ICABR Conference “Impacts of the Bioeconomy on Agricultural Sustainability, The Environment and Human Health” Ravello (Italy): June 16 - 19, 2015 LEI Wageningen UR International Policy Division The Hague, The Netherlands

2. Background  Biomass is projected to become an important source of energy during the coming decades if climate change policies are implemented to keep the mean increase in global temperature below 2°C above preindustrial levels policy. BIO Projection: energy systems transformation toward sustainability objectives. Source: Global Environmental Outlook; Van Vuuren et al., Curr. Op. in Env. Sust. (2012)

3.  However, concerns about the sustainability of supply of biomass because of (indirect) land use effects: ● competition with food production and resulting food security effect ● impact on biodiversity ● greenhouse gas emissions from (decreasing) carbon stocks of natural vegetation  Option to reduce or avoid land use change effects: use of agricultural and forestry residues, by-products of food processing industry + ● They can be used at relatively low cost compared to energy crops. Background

4. To evaluate the land use change and food security effects of the use of the global sustainable potential of agricultural residues for bioenergy production in the year 2030 Objective

5. 1)The rent of the global sustainable potential of agricultural residues in 2030 is calculated. 2)A reference scenario for 2030 is calculated with MAGNET CGE model. 3)The rent of agricultural residues is implemented in MAGNET CGE model as output subsidy in comparative static scenario based on reference scenario for 2030 Approach

6. Rent of the sustainable potential of agricultural harvest residues sustainable potential = theoretical/technical potential – other uses – ecological constraints marginal production costs marginal production costs RENT rent

7. RiceWheatGrainsOilseedsTotal Potential (EJ) North America 0.51.80.83.2 Asia Stan countries 2.40.93.5 South East Asia 1.5 3.1 Indonesia 1.62.5 Rest of the World 1.2 Total 2.43.3 4.113.5 EJ Rent (billion US$) North America 1.04.31.87.4 Asia Stan countries 1.10.51.7 South East Asia 0.50.40.9 Indonesia 0.50.8 Rest of the World 0.8 Total 0.92.45.12.911.6 BUS$ Sustainable potential and rent of the of agricultural harvest residues Data: an assessment of the sustainable potential and production costs of agricultural residues in 2030 (Daioglou et al., 2015), based on IMAGE model.

8. Results – Prices % change RiceWheatGriansOilseeds Other crops All crops Four key regions-1.5-3.8 -2.40.2-1.5 Rest of the World-0.2-0.7-0.5-0.6-0.1-0.2 World-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.1-0.1-0.5 Prices of crops with agricultural residues in four key regions decrease Prices of crops without agricultural residues in four key regions increase (higher land prices) Average prices of agricultural commodities decrease in the rest of the world and globally

9. Results - Consumption Consumption of crops with agricultural residues increases in especially four key regions and partially also in rest of the world ≈ improved food security % change RiceWheatGriansOilseeds Other crops All crops Four key regions0.21.72.21.50.00.7 Rest of the World0.00.10.2-0.10.0 World0.1 0.60.20.00.1 Consumption of oilseeds decreases in rest of the world, due to substitution of oilseeds by wheat and grains (animal feed)

10. Results - Production Production of crops with agricultural residues increases in four key regions % change RiceWheatGriansOilseeds Other crops All crops Four key regions0.46.42.72.3-0.21.2 Rest of the World0.0-0.7-0.2-0.70.0-0.1 World0.1 0.60.20.00.1 Production increases globally Production of crops without agricultural residues decreases in four key regions due to higher land prices and substitution Production of crops in the rest of the world decreases

11. Results - Trade  Higher exports to rest of the world / lower imports of four key regions  60% of the additional production in the four regions is exported (directly plus indirectly)!  Higher exports to rest of the world more than compensate the decrease in production → improved food security

12. Results – Land use North America Rest of the world Asia Stan countries South East Asia Indonesia World  Increase of the area cropland and decrease of the area pastures in North America and Asia Stan countries → ( limited) net agricultural land expansion  Decrease of cropland area in rest of the world; increase of area pastures → lower agricultural land use  Globally a small net decrease of agricultural area; average increase of crop yields

13. Discussion & conclusions  Food security impacts of using the sustainable potential of residues and waste are on average positive; certainly for consumers, possibly not for consumers that are also producers  Land use change effects are ‘mixed’: increased use of cropland decreased use of pastures; net land use change effect is limited, but still potentially substantial GHG emission effect (because volume of carbon stored in the soil is large).  First study about this issue, except for a similar study about wheat straw use in EU; these are first attempts !

14. Discussion & conclusions  Future research priorities: ● No correlations with other biomass production chains are considered; more complex modelling analyses are needed; joint profit maximising decision! ● More complex and detailed food security analyses (household level analyses; producers vs. consumers). ● Use of residues for bioenergy use; renewable energy and climate change policies impact. ● Changes in production technology (cereals with higher straw to grain ratio → lower crop yields!)  To be continued...

15. Thank you for your attention! International Policy Division LEI – part of Wageningen UR Edward Smeets edward.smeets@wur.nl ++31 70 335 82 43