1. Mark D. Levine Division Director Environmental Energy Technologies LBNL Workshop: Solar to Fuel – Future Challenges and Solutions March 28 – 29, 2005 Issues in the Transition to a CO 2 - Neutral Economy

2. EETD DivRev 2004 page 2 New Yorker Objectives Provide insights into global scenarios of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions and Address question: role of energy technology in preventing big problems Background Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions Policy: China example Topics

3. EETD DivRev 2004 page 3 New Yorker Current global energy use: ~400 Exajouoles/yr; (United States is 25%) Per capita energy use: 11.5 kW (U.S.); 5 kW (W. Europe); 1.5 kW (developing country) Energy production and use accounts for ~80% of greenhouse gas emissions Pre-industrial level of carbon dioxide in atmosphere = 280 ppm; current level is 370 ppm (1/3 higher), growing at >1.0 percent per year No controversy about fact that this increase has anthropogenic source Doubling of carbon in atm from pre-industrial levels => initial 2 deg C increase (3.5 deg C increase at steady state) in global temperature  although climate change models still need much improvement, this average result has been best estimate in all major studies since early 1970’s  major impacts likely to be caused by increased frequency of events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, and sea level rise rather than simply temperature changes Background

4. EETD DivRev 2004 page 4 New Yorker In my view, there is a need to rethink approach to energy and carbon emission scenarios The current approach, exemplified by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the IPCC*, is flawed  like previous approaches, no attention is given to the underlying causes of energy use (e.g., refrigerators: efficiency, size, saturation; steel mills: processes, efficiency, tonnes of steel, uses of output)  even more problematical, this work involves statistics on analyses of uncertain meaning ___________________________ * Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios

5. EETD DivRev 2004 page 5 Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. London: Cambridge University Press. Global energy-related and industrial CO2 emissions – historical development and future scenarios, shown as an index (1990 = 1). Scenarios

6. EETD DivRev 2004 page 6 New Yorker Presentation today is for first phase of new work, based on macro economic considerations On-going work addresses global demand for energy services: Example 1 – refrigeration: size, saturation, and efficiency of refrigerators Example 2 – air conditioning: climate; thermal characteristics of building; saturation and usage of air conditioners; efficiency Example 3 – steel: demand for steel including materials substitution; efficiency of steel-making processes; mix of recycled vs. steel from ore Scenarios

7. EETD DivRev 2004 page 7 All scenarios assume the same population projections (source: World Bank). All scenarios break the world into ten regions as defined by LBNL. Population Projections

8. EETD DivRev 2004 page 8 Scenario Description North America and Western Europe remain near their current per capita energy usage. The rest of the world approaches 1x, 0.75x, and 0.5x the European level in 2075. North America and Western Europe decrease 0.5% per year from 2000 per capita energy usage through 2075. The rest of the world approaches 1x, 0.75x, and 0.5x the European level in 2075. Scenario 1Scenario 2

9. EETD DivRev 2004 page 9 North America fixed at 2000 level. Europe fixed at 2000 level. Rest-of-world matches Europe in 2075 Scenario 1A: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

10. EETD DivRev 2004 page 10 North America fixed at 2000 level. All of Europe and Pacific OECD reaches European 2000 levels. Rest-of-world reaches 0.75*Europe in 2075 Scenario 1B: Assumed per capita Energy Usage

11. EETD DivRev 2004 page 11 North America fixed at 2000 level. All of Europe, and Pacific OECD, reaches 2000 European level in 2075. Rest-of-world matches 0.5*Europe in 2075 Scenario 1C: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

12. EETD DivRev 2004 page 12 Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005 Rest-of-world matches Europe in 2075 Scenario 2A: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

13. EETD DivRev 2004 page 13 Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005 Rest-of-world reaches 0.75*(Europe in 2075) Scenario 2B: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

14. EETD DivRev 2004 page 14 Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005. Rest-of-world reaches 0.5 *(Europe in 2075) Scenario 2C: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

15. EETD DivRev 2004 page 15 Comparison: Total Primary Energy, Scenario 1 A/B/C compared to Scenario 2 A/B/C

16. EETD DivRev 2004 page 16 Carbon Emitted per Unit of Primary Energy for All Scenarios Baseline assumption: carbon emitted per unit of primary energy will continue to decrease at its historic rate of 3.6% per decade

17. EETD DivRev 2004 page 17 Projected Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration in 2100, Different Scenarios Assumes that for each unit of carbon emitted from 2000 to 2100, atm carbon increases by 0.5 units, as in past decades Does not consider effects of major changes in carbon content of energy supply

18. EETD DivRev 2004 page 18 New Yorker Story of China  illustrates a remarkable policy success 1980-2000  shows tremendous policy challenges today  by its size and economic growth, will lie at the center of the policy matters technology policy internal (Chinese) energy policy international climate change policy Policy

19. EETD DivRev 2004 page 19 Energy efficiency policies and investment in energy efficiency achieved remarkable results in China Energy Use, Actual and Projected at 1977 Intensity, 1952-1999

20. EETD DivRev 2004 page 20 Major reversal in China since 2001 There ’ s been a dramatic change – with very serious consequences

21. EETD DivRev 2004 page 21 What is to be done? $25B/yr investment in energy efficiency is needed to cut energy demand growth in half Restoring energy efficiency investment to early 1980 ’ s level (that is 10-15% of supply investment) would be ~$6.5B/yr Actual investment is ~$3B/yr! $4-6B/yr investment in energy efficiency may be sufficient if policies bring forth the remaining needed investment

22. EETD DivRev 2004 page 22 What policies will produce the needed investment? Energy Efficiency Policies —targets for energy efficiency for industries, —building energy standards, —appliance efficiency standards, —auto fuel economy standards, and —Incentives for new transport infrastructure (bus rapid transit). Supporting Programs and Policies —technical guidance —utility demand-side management —good economic signals Investment Incentives —for whatever is not paid for by consumers (above)

23. EETD DivRev 2004 page 23 Conclusion If we are to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to acceptable levels, everything is important  Policies  Energy efficiency technology  Zero-carbon supply technology

24. EETD DivRev 2004 page 24 Carbon Emissions per Unit of Primary Energy: Three Scenarios of Future Development IIIIII 2000- 2019 3.6 2020- 2039 3.64.56 2040- 2059 3.65.58 2060- 2100 3.6710 Decrease in carbon emitted per unit of energy produced (percent decrease per decade)

25. EETD DivRev 2004 page 25 Projected Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration in 2100, under Different Scenarios of Carbon per Unit Energy Assumption: for each unit of carbon emitted from 2000 to 2100, atmospheric carbon in 2100 increases by 0.5 units.